Bank of America: US GDP growth in 2026 is 2.4%, can Bitcoin escape the winter?

U.S. banks predict that the U.S. GDP growth rate will reach 2.4% in 2026, with favorable factors including interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, more favorable trade policies, and continued investment in artificial intelligence. For Bitcoin, the key is not the U.S. economic growth rate itself, but the level of real yields adjusted for inflation. S&P Global Research found that since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with real yields, performing excellently in environments of liquidity expansion and low real yields.

Divergent U.S. Economic Forecasts: Optimism from Bank of America vs. Warnings from JPMorgan

(Source: BofA Global Research)

The forecast from American banks indicates that the 2.4% growth in US GDP by 2026 will be supported by five key pillars. The Obama healthcare reform fiscal plan has boosted consumer and capital spending by about 0.5 percentage points, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the second half of the year have stimulated economic activity. Additionally, favorable trade policies, sustained investment in artificial intelligence, and base effects have pushed up actual output.

In addition, the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is 2.6%, the core PCE is 2.8%, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the US economy is experiencing a soft landing, inflation is slightly sticky, and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is already halfway through. For stock bulls, this is equivalent to allowing them to continue holding.

However, JPMorgan has drawn a risk map that could turn the basic expectations of U.S. banks into a bumpier situation. Driven by the surge in artificial intelligence, the S&P 500 index rose about 14% in 2025, but will face pressure in 2026. The Supreme Court's review of the tariffs policy during President Trump's term will directly affect the projected fiscal deficit, which accounts for 6.2% of GDP, as these tariffs could generate nearly $350 billion in fiscal revenue each year.

Four Risks Warned by JPMorgan

Uncertainty of Trump Tariffs: The Supreme Court review could lead to an annual revenue fluctuation of $350 billion, directly impacting the fiscal deficit.

US-China Tensions: China's control over critical mineral resources poses risks of stagflation and supply shocks.

Political Stalemate: The 2026 midterm elections may lead to a shift in power in the House of Representatives, increasing policy uncertainty.

Weak consumer spending: Early labor market tightness and cost of living pressures may weaken consumption.

Both Bank of America and JPMorgan's descriptions of the U.S. economic outlook are largely consistent: moderate growth, inflation above target levels, and a partial easing of policies by The Federal Reserve (FED), but Bank of America leans towards bullish factors, while JPMorgan warns that the situation is fragile.

The actual yield rate determines the fate of Bitcoin, not the growth rate of the US GDP

For Bitcoin, the key variable is not whether the U.S. GDP growth rate is 2.0% or 2.4%, but rather what level the inflation-adjusted yield is at. S&P Global Research has found that since 2017, there has been a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin and real yields, with Bitcoin performing better than real yields during periods of policy easing and liquidity expansion.

An analysis by 21Shares suggests that in the post-ETF era, BTC trades as a macro asset, with its pricing reflecting the capital flows and liquidity of ETFs, rather than just the on-chain fundamentals. Binance's macro explanation clearly indicates that Bitcoin “thrives in environments of ample liquidity and low or negative real yields,” as investors are then willing to pay a price for long-term, zero-yield assets.

The current level of real yields complicates the bullish outlook. The yields on two-year and ten-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for 2025 are close to the upper limit of their 15-year range. When real yields soar, cash and government bonds can provide quite attractive positive real yields. Cryptocurrency analysts believe that a decline in real yields is a prerequisite for Bitcoin prices to rise again: when real yields decrease, capital shifts towards growth and high-beta investments.

Forecasts indicate that by the end of 2026, the policy rate will stabilize around 3%, which means that if inflation trends align with the predictions of the U.S. banks, the real interest rate will be slightly positive. This is more accommodative than the peak interest rate hikes of 2022-2023, but it won't fall into negative territory like in 2020. The question is whether this moderate easing policy can lower the real yields from current levels, or if tariff and deficit pressures will keep yields stable.

ETF capital flows amplify economic fluctuations in the United States, Bitcoin is impacted

BlackRock's IBIT and its peers have become major conduits for Bitcoin demand in the United States, with daily inflows and outflows exceeding $1 billion. When real yields decline and the dollar weakens, funds flow into risk assets, and ETFs amplify this trend. Conversely, when concerns about tariffs or deficits lead to surging yields, fund flows may also see a similarly violent reversal.

Just as the ETF capital flow can buffer the selling pressure from retail investors, the structure of these funds may also make Bitcoin more sensitive to changes in the macroeconomy. Nowadays, traditional portfolios can express their views on real returns by allocating Bitcoin, just as simply as rotating investments in technology stocks or commodities. Furthermore, the correlation between Bitcoin and risk appetite sentiment has been increasing. In 2022, as central banks tightened monetary policy, Bitcoin prices followed the decline in global liquidity. Between 2023 and 2025, as liquidity rebounds, Bitcoin prices are expected to rise accordingly.

If the loose policy envisioned by American banks in 2026 is implemented, ETF capital flows will support Bitcoin's rise. However, if JPMorgan's risks become a reality and real yields remain high, the same capital flow channels will exacerbate Bitcoin's decline.

Tariff and inflation risks may put Bitcoin in a dilemma

The tariffs, along with the risks from China and politics that JPMorgan faces, are not abstract concepts but rather a transmission mechanism that could push actual yields higher than what is predicted based solely on a 2.4% growth in U.S. GDP. UBS analysis warns that tariffs could keep inflation persistently high in the first half of 2026, with the core PCE index peaking at around 3.2% and remaining above 2% in 2027.

If the nominal yield remains sticky while inflation slowly declines, then the yield curve for inflation-protected bonds will remain at the high end of the recent range. Analysts believe that this is an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin: real yields are high enough that cash and short-term bonds can offer attractive returns, directly competing with non-yielding assets.

The uncertainty of tariffs adds another layer of complexity. If the Supreme Court maintains the existing structure, fiscal revenue may support deficit financing, but it will also lead to persistent import inflation. If tariffs are removed, the deficit will widen, potentially pushing up the government bond yield curve due to supply-side concerns. Regardless of the outcome, it will complicate the Federal Reserve's easing path and may result in real yields staying at their peaks longer than the market expects.

China's control over critical minerals poses supply shock risks, exacerbating stagflation: slowing growth, increasing inflation, and tightening economic conditions. Historically, this combination severely impacts risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Conditional Conclusion: The Double-Edged Effect of Economic Growth in the United States

If the world of American banks can be successfully realized, the U.S. economy will grow by 2.4%, the inflation rate will stabilize but still be slightly above target levels, and the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates until 2026, then Bitcoin is more likely to benefit rather than decline. This combination usually means a decline in real yields and a loose financial environment, and Bitcoin tends to rise in such an environment.

If JPMorgan's world dominates, tariffs keep inflation high, uncertainty from the Supreme Court disrupts income expectations, and US-China tensions impact the supply chain, then the 2.4% growth in US GDP on paper can still coexist with higher long-term real yields. Given that nominal yields are between 4% and 5%, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin remains high, and the fund flows for ETFs will remain volatile, even negative.

A 2.4% economic growth rate in the United States is neither good nor bad for Bitcoin. The real question is whether this growth comes with a decline in real yields and an expansion of liquidity, or whether it is accompanied by tariff-driven, deficit-driven inflation and sticky real yields.