Solana Price Prediction: ETF Inflows Hit New Lows, Institutions Withdraw as SOL Falls Below 150 USD

On November 14, Solana (SOL) fell below $150, setting a new low daily closing price in nearly five months. The net inflow of the US Spot Solana ETF on Thursday was only $1.49 million, marking the lowest inflow since its launch, reflecting a sharp decline in institutional demand. The derivation market shows that market sentiment has turned bearish, with the open interest volume decreasing by 3.34% to $7.35 billion within 24 hours.

ETF inflow hits a record low reflecting institutional withdrawal

(Source: SoSoValue)

The US Solana Spot ETF has only been launched for two weeks, and already there are concerning signals of demand fatigue. According to data from Sosovalue, net inflows on Thursday were only $1.49 million, mainly driven by the Bitwise Solana Staked ETF. This is the lowest inflow since the launch of the Solana ETF, contrasting sharply with the strong demand on the first day of launch.

The sharp decline in inflow reflects that institutional investors are limiting their risk exposure in the current volatile market environment. As Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $100,000, the entire cryptocurrency market is impacted, and Solana loses market support as well, undermining investor confidence. Institutional investors are usually an important force for market stability, and their withdrawal often signals a deeper adjustment.

Solana price predictions must consider changes in institutional demand. ETF inflow data is an important indicator of traditional financial institutions' interest in crypto assets. When ETF inflows decrease, it means that new funds are insufficient to absorb market selling pressure, and prices naturally face downward pressure. If, in the coming days, Solana ETF experiences daily net outflows for the first time, it will be a tough battle for the bulls to recover.

It is worth noting that this weak institutional demand occurs against the backdrop of the continuous development of the Solana ecosystem. The innovations in technology and the expansion of application scenarios have not been able to stop the outflow of funds, which suggests that in the short term, market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions have a far greater impact on prices than fundamental factors.

Derivation market sentiment turns fully bearish

(Source: Coinglass)

The derivatives market has also shown a similar trend, with market sentiment turning bearish as traders reduce their investment in Solana futures. CoinGlass data shows that the open interest (OI, or the nominal value of outstanding Solana futures contracts) has decreased by 3.34% in the past 24 hours to $7.35 billion. This indicates that traders are either closing long positions or reducing leverage.

The decrease in open contract volume is a clear signal of reduced market participation. When traders lack confidence in future trends, they usually choose to close positions rather than continue holding. This behavior is extremely common during adjustments in the cryptocurrency market and often accompanies further price declines, as the closing process itself generates additional selling pressure.

What is even more concerning is the change in financing rates. In line with the bearish trend, the OI weighted financing rate has shifted from a near-neutral level earlier in the day to a negative level of -0.0076%, indicating that traders are willing to hold short positions and expect a longer period of adjustment. Financing rates are an important indicator of the balance of power between bulls and bears in the perpetual contract market. When financing rates turn negative, it means that short sellers are willing to pay costs to maintain their short positions, showing that the market has a very strong pessimistic expectation for the future.

Key Data of Solana Derivation Market

Open Interest: 7.35 billion USD (24-hour fall 3.34%)

Financing Rate: -0.0076% (from neutral to negative)

Market Sentiment: Traders proactively reduce leverage and establish short positions.

If Solana derivation continues to experience significant capital outflows, it will further weaken market confidence. Historical experience shows that when Spot ETF inflows and derivative open contracts decline simultaneously, it often signals that a deeper adjustment is imminent.

Technical Death Cross Risk and Key Support

(Source: Trading View)

Solana has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day this week, breaking below the psychological barrier of $150. As of the time of writing, SOL has dropped nearly 2% so far on Friday, targeting the low point of $126 on June 22. If SOL falls below $126, it may test the psychological support level of $100, and subsequently may drop to the low point of $95 on April 7.

In the short term, the dominance of bearish candlesticks has intensified the downtrend of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is converging with the 200-day EMA, posing a risk of a death cross formation. If a death cross pattern is formed, it may trigger a sell signal, further consolidating the position of the short-term downtrend over the long-term trend. The death cross is one of the most widely watched bearish signals in technical analysis, typically attracting technical traders to enter short positions.

At the same time, the trend momentum on the daily chart has turned bearish, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has failed to cross above the signal line, continuing the downward trend. The MACD is an important indicator of momentum changes, and when the MACD line remains below the signal line, it indicates that selling pressure continues to dominate. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart has fallen to 31 and is oscillating towards the oversold territory, reflecting a new wave of selling pressure.

However, the technical side is not completely hopeless. When the RSI hovers near the oversold boundary and the SOL price hits a new low, a bullish RSI divergence pattern is formed, indicating a potential rebound. This divergence usually occurs at the end of a downtrend, when the price makes a new low but the RSI does not, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening. However, this technical rebound signal needs to be confirmed with improvements in trading volume and fundamentals.

If SOL returns above the demand-supply zone of 155 USD, it may approach the resistance level of 175 USD. This rebound scenario requires institutional demand to recover and market sentiment to improve as prerequisites, which currently seems relatively low in possibility.

Head and Shoulders Pattern and Deeper Structural Risks

From a higher time frame perspective, Solana price predictions also need to consider the potential risk of a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline of this pattern forms around the 120 to 125 dollar range, and the volume on the right shoulder is relatively lower compared to the left shoulder, which is usually a sign that buyer interest is waning as the market approaches weakness.

Although the reliability of the traditional head and shoulders pattern has decreased in the cryptocurrency market due to unstable liquidity and frequent false breakouts, the presence of this pattern still holds significant warning meaning. It explains why the price continues to hover around $150, why sellers continue to defend lower highs, and sets clear validation or invalidation thresholds for traders.

If the price continues to fall below the neckline of 120 to 125 USD, the downtrend will be reinforced, and the Solana price prediction may further decline. Until then, this pattern should be seen as a warning signal rather than a prediction. More critically, there will be no bullish confirmation signal until the Solana price rises back to 177 USD. The short-term structure remains heavy, and multiple attempts to build upward momentum in the 170 USD to 177 USD range have been thwarted.

For participants, this is the clearest condition marker: as long as the trading price of SOL is below 170 to 177 USD, any trend reversal cannot be taken seriously. Before buyers re-establish a clear higher low pattern, rebounds are more likely to be digested rather than extended.