Bitcoin approaching the key resistance at $113,700, a fall below $107,000 may fear a return to five digits

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again experienced a pullback, temporarily reported at around $111,484 on August 28, down over 10% from the historical high of $124,000 set two weeks ago. Technically speaking, $113,700 has become the biggest challenge for short-term long positions, while $107,000 is the key defense line. If this level is breached, the price may quickly fall towards the $95,000–$93,000 range.

$113,700 resistance: the “ceiling” for short-term rebound

According to Glassnode’s data on August 27, $113,700 closely overlaps with the cost basis of three-month holders, constituting the primary resistance for a short-term rebound.

Additionally, the cost basis for one-month holders is higher, reaching $115,600, which means that even if it breaks through the first resistance level, it will still face more intense selling pressure.

Short-term holders often tend to sell at the breakeven point after experiencing unrealized losses, which will limit the rebound space.

107,000 USD support: long positions’ last line of defense

The six-month cost basis is at $107,000, which is a key price level that long positions must hold.

If the price continues to fall below that area, it may trigger panic selling from new investors, accelerating the drop to the range of 95,000–93,000 USD.

Historical data shows that this area once formed a dense supply cluster, which may become a potential support zone for the next round of fall.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Forecasts

The cost basis distribution heat map shows that since December 2024, a large amount of chips has accumulated in the range of $93,000–$110,000, providing a certain degree of elasticity to the market, but at the same time also indicating concentrated selling pressure.

Statistical analysis of the four-year cycle shows that past medium-term corrections often reach a position one standard deviation below the cost basis of short-term holders, corresponding to a possible low point of around $95,100 this round.

Emotions and Market Structure: Fragile Balance

Currently, BTC has fallen 11.4% from its peak, which is below the typical magnitude of more than 25% for historical mid-cycle corrections.

The relative unrealized loss is only 0.5%, far lower than the 30% during bear markets, indicating that the market has not yet entered extreme panic, but pressure is accumulating.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is close to 1.0, reflecting that investors have neither realized significant profits nor suffered major losses, indicating a neutral market sentiment.

Derivatives and Spot Market Signals

Since July, the perpetual futures market has turned bearish, with major exchanges continuously showing signs of selling pressure.

The popularity of the spot market has shifted from strong buying in April to a wait-and-see approach, with financing rates remaining around 0.01%, indicating that the market is in a delicate balance, and any slight disturbance could trigger a reversal of sentiment.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a critical range of “pressure above and danger below”: a breakout above $113,700 will open up rebound space for long positions, but if it falls below $107,000, it may accelerate the decline to the dense supply area of $95,000–$93,000. Investors need to closely monitor these two key price levels, as they will determine the next dominant direction for BTC.