Analysts warn: Polymarket bets that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 in 2026 is 61%.

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching an all-time high this year, the latest data from Polymarket shows that most bettors are wagering that BTC will fall below $100,000 before 2026. Analysts point out that if digital asset treasury bonds (DAT) and institutional buying cannot offset the massive dumping pressure, this “psychological barrier” may be breached. However, some experts believe that favourable information from regulations and macro policies could become price support.

Polymarket Betting Data: Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

As of Wednesday, 61% of traders on Polymarket believe that BTC will fall below $100,000 by the end of the year, which is lower than 72% on Monday, but still indicates market concerns about short-term trends.

Background: This week, BTC fell below 110,000 USD for the first time in six weeks, triggering market risk aversion.

Current Price: 112,081 USD (as of 5:19 PM Eastern Time)

History: Since June, the BTC price has never fallen below 100,000 US dollars.

Presto research analyst Min Jung stated that currently the dumping by whales and long-term holders is still being absorbed by institutional and corporate buying, but if the selling pressure increases, whether new funds can sustain it will become crucial.

Analyst View: Leverage Rate Soars and Potential Risks

Last week, a Bitcoin whale exchanged 22,400 BTC for ETH, causing short-term downward pressure on the market.

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde warned that the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has surged to a two-year high of 310,000 BTC (approximately $34 billion), with the annualized funding rate rising from 3% to nearly 11%, indicating excessive bullish leverage.

He pointed out that this is similar to the leverage increase in the summer of 2023 and 2024, which triggered a large-scale liquidation wave in August.

Potential Favourable Information: Regulatory Breakthrough and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

(Source: The Block)

Investment expert David Hernandez from 21Shares holds a relatively optimistic view, believing that BTC will not fall below $100,000 this year, and has listed three potential catalysts:

Favourable Information on Regulation: The U.S. “Clarity Act” has passed the House of Representatives and is now being sent to the Senate for review.

Policy Support: The CFTC and SEC are promoting the plan to “make the United States the global crypto capital.”

Macroeconomic Environment: The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates next month, providing strong support for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

In addition, the market demand for DAT remains stable. Japan’s Metaplanet plans to invest 837 million USD to acquire BTC in September-October 2025; top Bitcoin DAT strategy companies also increased their holdings by over 3,000 BTC this week, bringing their reserves to 632,000 coins.

Conclusion

Polymarket betting shows that the market’s confidence in Bitcoin’s short-term trend has wavered, with 61% of bettors wagering that it will fall below $100,000 before 2026. However, favourable information such as regulatory breakthroughs, institutional buying, and potential interest rate cuts may still provide support for BTC. The key moving forward is whether demand can continue to absorb the selling pressure to avoid further deterioration of market sentiment.