Is the Bitcoin bull run entering its final sprint? Analysts warn: an epic peak may arrive within 60 days.

In early August, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic high of $124,000, but the pump subsequently slowed down, and this week it briefly fell below $109,000. Although the market remains confident about a long-term bull run, analysts warn that the current bull market cycle may have completed 93%, with less than two months remaining until the final peak.

Bull run cycle progress: only one step away from the peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Cryptobirb pointed out that the current bull run cycle began after the halving on April 19, 2024, and has lasted for 1,007 days to date.

Looking back at history, the durations of the past four cycles were 350 days, 746 days, 1,068 days, and 1,061 days respectively. Based on this calculation, this cycle’s peak may occur between 1,060 and 1,100 days, which is from late October to mid-November 2025.

The halving time has verified this estimate: historically, it takes about 366 to 548 days after the halving to reach a peak, corresponding to the peak window for this cycle being from October 19, 2025, to November 20, 2025.

Technical and On-Chain Signals: Strong Support, No Signs of Surrender

Technically, BTC remains well above the 50-week moving average (97,094 USD) and the 200-week moving average (52,590 USD), indicating a healthy long-term structure.

On-chain data is equally optimistic:

1. The mining cost is close to 97,124 USD.

2. The NUPL and MVRV indicators show market stability.

3. No “miner surrender” risk

Despite the outflow of $194 million from the ETF on August 21, the overall position remains large, and the short-term capital outflow is not enough to change the long-term trend.

Seasonal Trends and Capital Flow Observation

Historical data shows that August and September are typically months when Bitcoin performs poorly, while October and November often see the strongest annual pump. This aligns closely with the predicted peak window.

Cryptobirb emphasizes that this seasonal pattern, combined with the mathematical calculations of the halving cycle and historical cycle length, points to a “grand finale” in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Conclusion

With only 60 days left until Bitcoin’s potential historic peak, the market is entering the final sprint phase. While short-term fluctuations and ETF fund outflows are worth noting, cycle data, the halving effect, and seasonal trends all point to an explosive window from late October to mid-November 2025. For investors, this could be the final golden moment of this bull run. For more real-time quotes and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.