Bitcoin prices won't really To da moon until Trump appoints a new Federal Reserve (FED) chairman.

As the market generally bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) in September, Bitcoin (BTC) investors are looking forward to favourable information from a more accommodative monetary policy. However, economist Alex Krüger warns that the real turning point in the market may not come until Trump announces Powell’s successor.

The expectation of interest rate cuts has surged, but key variables have not been accounted for.

Krüger stated on X (formerly Twitter) that he “is very confident that this cycle is not over yet,” as he expects the new chair of The Federal Reserve (FED) to bring a more dovish policy orientation.

Timing: Powell’s term will expire in May 2026.

Trigger condition: The market will only begin to truly digest this favourable information once Trump announces his successor.

Policy Impact: A more accommodative monetary policy will drive risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Trump’s Tense Relationship with Powell

Since Trump took office in January of this year, his relationship with Powell has been tense:

Repeated criticism: accusing The Federal Reserve (FED) of unwillingness to lower interest rates.

April 17: Trump bluntly stated, “Powell’s dismissal came too late!”

Political support: Florida Senator Rick Scott also called for a change in The Federal Reserve (FED).

Potential Candidates and Timeline

According to a report by CNBC, the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Powell, including:

David Zervos (Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies)

Rick Rieder (CIO of BlackRock Global Fixed Income)

Larry Lindsey (former Federal Reserve Board member)

Other news indicates that the candidate list has been narrowed down to 3-4 people and may be announced earlier than the market expects.

Interest rate cut in September is almost a done deal

Krüger predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will lower interest rates at the meeting on September 17.

CME FedWatch Tool: 83.9% of market participants expect interest rate cuts

Market Reaction: A rate cut will lower the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and enhance the attractiveness of risk assets.

Conclusion

For Bitcoin investors, the interest rate cut in September may just be the prelude, and the real catalyst will be Trump’s new Federal Reserve chair nomination. If the candidate leans dovish, BTC may welcome a new round of rising markets. However, before that, the market may remain cautious, waiting for this key personnel decision to be finalized.