XRP Spot ETF may become the next rally trigger point, BTC breaks through 121,000 USD aiming for a new high.

Today’s (11) focus in the crypto market is on the approval progress of the XRP Spot ETF and Bitcoin’s (BTC) strong breakthrough of 121,000 USD. As the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) considers modifying ETF listing rules, XRP investors are betting that this will become the catalyst for the next round of pump; at the same time, BTC is approaching historical highs driven by the influx of funds into Spot ETFs and favorable policies.

XRP: Spot ETF approval could change the game

Recently, there has been much discussion in the market about the potential application timing of BlackRock’s iShares XRP Trust. Nate Geraci, president of Nova Dius Wealth, hinted that BlackRock might formally submit its applications for the XRP and SOL ETFs only after the SEC approves the universal listing standards for crypto spot ETFs.

* Key Points of SEC Rule Changes

Current process: The exchange needs to submit Form 19b-4 to initiate a review period lasting up to 240 days.

Proposed amendment: If passed, compliant encryption spot ETFs can be listed directly without case-by-case approval.

Impact: This will accelerate the listing of multiple ETFs including Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC) and Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), which both hold XRP.

The review deadline for the ETF rule modification is in October. If approved, the XRP Spot ETF is expected to be implemented quickly, becoming a key catalyst for price breakthroughs.

XRP Price Outlook: $3.5 is Key Resistance

(Source: Trading View)

On August 10, XRP fell by 1.17% to $3.1880, marking three consecutive days of decline, primarily influenced by the uncertainty regarding the timing of ETF approvals.

· Short-term resistance: $3.3830 (high on August 8)

· Main target: After breaking through 3.5 USD, it is expected to test 3.6606 USD (historical high on July 18).

· Support level: $3.2; if it falls below, it may test $2.9184 and the 50-day EMA.

· Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows that bullish signals are still present. If the favourable information regarding the ETF materializes, XRP is expected to end its consecutive declines and accelerate its rebound.

BTC: Spot ETF inflow drives breakthrough

(Source: Trading View)

In contrast to the hesitation with XRP, BTC has shown strong momentum recently. On August 10, BTC rose by 2.66% to $119,047, and on August 11, it broke through $121,400, reaching a new high since July 14.

* Driving Factors

Spot ETF fund inflow: On August 6, recorded a net inflow of $253.2 million, ending four consecutive days of fund outflow.

Favourable Information on Policy: U.S. President Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement funds to invest in encryption assets, releasing up to 8.7 trillion USD market potential.

Market sentiment: The inflow of ETFs and policy support have boosted BTC bulls’ confidence.

* BTC Price Path

Bullish Scenario: If the “CLARITY Act” progresses in Congress, U.S. inflation cools down, and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, BTC is expected to break through the historical high of $122,055.

Bearish scenario: If legislation is obstructed, inflation heats up, and ETF funds flow out, BTC may drop to $115,000 and test the 50-day EMA.

Key Events Investors Should Pay Attention To

· XRP Spot ETF Approval Progress (Before October)

· U.S. Legislative Update: Progress of the CLARITY Act

· Macroeconomic Data: US CPI, Federal Reserve Policy Guidance

· ETF Fund Flow: Net Inflow/Outflow of Spot ETF

Conclusion

The next surge of XRP may depend on whether the SEC approves the modification of the listing rules for Spot ETFs, while BTC has already broken through the $121,000 mark driven by inflows and favourable information. For investors, the coming weeks will be a critical period to observe ETF approvals, policy directions, and capital flows.