Moody's Analysis: Trump's tariffs will kill "5.5 million jobs"; combined with AI, it will devastate the U.S. economy.

What American workers are most afraid of right now, in addition to AI replacing their jobs, is also the tariff policy proposed by their President Donald Trump. (Synopsis: How does Trump’s tariff war stir up cryptocurrency prices? (Background added: Trump: Don’t want Musk to leave the White House and return to Tesla, will try to keep it) Trump’s tariff policy may push the unemployment rate in the United States to a peak. In this regard, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, issued a stern warning: if the Trump administration imposes universal tariffs of up to 20% on all imported goods and triggers global trade retaliation, the US economy may face a “devastating blow”. 5.5 million jobs lost In an interview with ABC, Zandi talked about the team’s simulation analysis through economic models, which showed that as many as 5.5 million U.S. jobs would disappear. The unemployment rate could be pushed to an alert level of 7% from its current relatively low level. Gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink significantly, falling to 1.7 percentage points. “It’s going to be a severe recession,” Zandi put it bluntly, “and it’s going to be a devastating blow to the U.S. economy.” Zandi’s analysis points to the ripple effects that such aggressive tariffs could trigger. First, high tariffs will directly drive up the cost of imported goods, which will eventually be passed on to U.S. consumers, leading to increased inflationary pressures. Second, the production costs of U.S. manufacturers that rely on imported parts or raw materials will rise sharply, weakening their competitiveness. More deadly, when trading partners retaliate, U.S. export industries (such as agriculture, automobiles, high-tech products, etc.) will bear the brunt, orders will plummet, which in turn will trigger large-scale layoffs and plunge the economy into a negative cycle. Looking back at the US-China trade war launched during Trump’s first term, its impact on specific industries (such as US soybean farmers), and the rise in the prices of some commodities, many market participants still remember it well. The 20% “universal” tariff simulated by Zandi this time far exceeds the scope and level of the rate. Zandi’s predictions may not take into account the decline of AI development, and even if a new generation of trade wars has not begun, the rapid deployment of AI has begun to replace repetitive, routine jobs in a variety of industries, from customer service and data analytics to manufacturing and logistics. While AI has also created new career opportunities, its impact on existing employment structures, its crowding out effect on specific skilled workers, and the possible pressure on overall wage levels have become a common concern among economists and policymakers. The U.S. labor market is already struggling to adapt to this technology-driven change. The combination of AI and tariff strikes could have a devastating bomb-like effect. If high tariffs lead to soaring import costs and shrinking export markets, companies may accelerate the adoption of AI and automation technologies to cut labor costs in order to maintain profits, making industries (such as manufacturing) that have been hit by tariffs even worse, and unemployment may be greater than if factors alone. However, Zandi is not entirely pessimistic. He added in his analysis that given the huge economic damage and political backlash that extreme tariffs could bring, he believes Trump is likely to recognize the risks and ultimately choose to announce a “less extreme” tariff package to avoid pushing the U.S. economy over a cliff. Related reports Read the article: How does Trump’s tariff war stir up cryptocurrency prices? Bitcoin knocks 85,000" Trump reciprocal tariffs detonated tonight, analysts: BTC hit its worst quarterly performance in 3 years, but there is still a second wave of main rising waves Trump: I don’t want Musk to leave the White House and return to Tesla, I will try my best to keep it 〈Moody’s analysis: Trump tariffs will kill “5.5 million jobs”; Plus AI destroys the U.S. economy" This article was first published in BlockTempo’s “Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media”.