Gate latest Crypto Assets market analysis (October 29): Bitcoin 113,000 oscillates, Fear and Greed Index returns to "neutral"

The current trading price of Bitcoin is 113,000 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching 1.258 billion USD. Institutional investment continues, with public companies holding over 1 million coins. The spot trading volume of Ethereum has surpassed BTC, and the ecosystem continues to develop. The Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index reports 51, which is in a neutral range, and market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

Bitcoin holds steady at $110,000, institutional holdings reach historic high

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

The current price of Bitcoin is 113,000 USD, with a 24-hour Trading Volume of 1.258 billion USD. A key feature is the continued strong institutional investment, with publicly listed companies holding over 1 million coins, marking a historic milestone. This figure includes the holdings of several publicly listed companies such as Strategy, Tesla, and Block (formerly Square), indicating that corporate financial allocations are undergoing a structural transformation.

A publicly traded company holds 1 million Bitcoins, valued at approximately 112.2 billion USD based on the current price. The scale of institutional holdings provides strong bottom support for Bitcoin prices, as these companies typically adopt a long-term holding strategy and are not easily swayed to sell due to short-term price fluctuations. Michael Saylor of Strategy has repeatedly stated that he will never sell Bitcoin, viewing it instead as a permanent asset allocation.

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $110,000 level, with intensified long and short battles. This kind of consolidation pattern is very common after breaking through historical highs, and the market needs time to digest the previous gains and build momentum for the next upward wave. Key technical levels include the resistance at $115,137 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level) above and the support at $106,453 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) below. As long as the price remains above $110,000, the medium-term trend is still bullish.

The 24-hour trading volume of 1.258 billion USD indicates that the Bitcoin market remains active. This volume level is historically considered moderately high, neither overheating nor too sluggish, reflecting the current moderate activity of market participants. Healthy trading volume is crucial for price stability and maintaining liquidity.

Bitcoin Core Data:

Current Price: Around 113,000 USD

24 Hour Change: -0.6%

24-hour Trading Volume: 1.258 billion USD

Public Company Holdings: Exceeding 1 million coins (valued at approximately 112.2 billion USD)

Technical Analysis: $110,000 volatile consolidation

Key Resistance: $115,137

Key Support: $106,453

Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin Trading Volume, public chain ecosystem explodes

The current price of Ethereum is $3,972, with a 24-hour price change of -0.19% and a 24-hour trading volume of $747 million. The most critical feature is that the spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, marking a historic milestone. Traditionally, Bitcoin has always been the asset with the largest trading volume in the crypto assets market, and Ethereum's trading volume surpassing it signifies a change in market structure.

The surpassing of this trading volume may stem from multiple factors. First, the activity level of the Ethereum ecosystem is on the rise, with DeFi protocols, NFT markets, and Layer-2 scaling solutions driving an increase in on-chain activities. Second, institutional interest in Ethereum is strengthening, as evidenced by large purchases from companies such as BitMine, Circle's integration of the Arc blockchain, and Western Union's choice of Solana over Ethereum (but still validating institutional interest in smart contract platforms), indicating that institutional funds are assessing and allocating exposure to Ethereum.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is fluctuating around $4,300, with the market focusing on the capital flow in September. A triple resistance zone is formed near $4,300 (daily resistance at $4,232, 78.6% Fibonacci at $4,193, and 50-day moving average at $4,115), and a strong buying push is needed to break through this area. The capital flow data for September shows that the performance of Ethereum ETFs is relatively moderate, but institutions are increasing their allocation through other channels (such as direct purchases in spot trading and participation in DeFi protocols).

In the past three months, Ether has increased by 4%, and over the past year, it has risen by 52.7%. Although this growth is considerable, it appears relatively conservative compared to Bitcoin and certain altcoins. However, the leading volume indicates that Ethereum is attracting more and more attention from traders and investors, which may be a sign of a price breakout.

Shanzhai Coin Sector Small Coins Lead Rise Speculative Sentiment Warms Up

The altcoin group shows obvious differentiation characteristics. The top three coins leading the rise are UNDEAD (24-hour increase of 20.36%, Trading Volume of 23,500 USD), PRARE (24-hour increase of 20.18%, Trading Volume of 22,900 USD), and BONEBONE (24-hour increase of 18.03%, Trading Volume of 22,500 USD). The characteristics of these small coins are significant volatility and strong short-term speculation.

It is worth noting that the trading volume of these leading coins is very small, only between 20,000 to 30,000 USD. This low liquidity combined with high price fluctuations usually means that prices can be easily manipulated, and a small amount of capital can cause severe volatility. For ordinary investors, while these small coins seem to offer high return opportunities, the risks are extremely high, and prices can surge or plummet in a short period of time.

The collective rise of these small coins may reflect a rise in market speculative sentiment. When mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuate at high levels, some funds will flow into higher-risk, higher-potential-return small-cap tokens in search of excess returns. This rotation of funds is a typical characteristic in the later stages of a bull market, but it may also be a signal of bubble accumulation.

Crypto Assets market analysis shows that investors should be extremely cautious when participating in such small coins. The recommended position size should be kept below 1% of total assets, and strict stop-losses should be set. These coins are suitable for speculators with very high risk tolerance, rather than long-term investors.

Fear and Greed Index 51 Neutral, the market waits for a catalyst

Fear and Greed Index reports 51, in the neutral range, with market sentiment being cautiously optimistic. The Fear and Greed Index is a composite indicator measuring the sentiment of the crypto assets market, ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). A reading of 51 indicates that the market is neither in a state of excessive panic nor excessive greed, maintaining a relatively balanced state.

This neutral sentiment is highly consistent with the current price trend. Bitcoin is fluctuating around $110,000, while Ethereum is consolidating around $4,000, with neither showing a clear directional breakout. The market is waiting for new catalysts to break the current balance. Possible catalysts include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the results of the Xi-Trump negotiations, earnings reports from tech giants, changes in ETF fund flows, or significant regulatory developments.

Volatility is within a controllable range, and the prices of mainstream coins are relatively stable, with intraday fluctuations kept within 1%. This low-volatility environment is more favorable for institutional investors as it reduces the risks and uncertainties associated with holding positions. However, for short-term traders, low volatility means fewer profit opportunities, and they may need to wait for larger price fluctuations to execute effective trades.

The liquidity health assessment shows that the liquidity of mainstream coins is good, with BTC and ETH daily trading volumes exceeding 1.2 billion and 700 million USD respectively. The trading depth is sufficient, and the impact of large trades is relatively small. This level of liquidity ensures market stability and efficiency, even when large buy and sell orders enter the market, it will not cause drastic price fluctuations.

Investment Strategy Recommendations and Risk Management

In terms of short-term trading strategies, the suggested entry point for BTC is around 110,000 USD, and for ETH, it is around 3,900 USD. The take profit and stop loss settings are BTC ±5% and ETH ±7%, reflecting that Ethereum's volatility is slightly higher than Bitcoin's. It is recommended to control the position at 10%-15% of total assets, with a risk level assessment of medium.

In terms of mid-term investment layout, the trend judgment is for a fluctuating upward movement, with allocation recommendations of BTC 60% and ETH 40%. This allocation leans towards Bitcoin, reflecting its characteristics as a market leader and its lower volatility. Key points to watch are the SEC regulatory developments, as changes in regulatory policies could have a significant impact on the market.

Scenario Analysis:

Bull Market Scenario (Probability 40%): Increase allocation of Crypto Assets to 20%-30% of total assets, focusing on BTC and ETH.

Market Consolidation Scenario (Probability 50%): Maintain the current configuration, increase positions at support levels, and decrease positions at resistance levels.

Bear Market Scenario (Probability 10%): Maintain liquidity, keep positions below 5%, and wait for a clear trend.

Core risks include systemic risk (global macroeconomic uncertainty), individual coin risk (regulatory policy changes), liquidity risk (market sudden events), and regulatory risk (potential policy adjustments by the SEC). In terms of market outlook, it is expected to maintain the current pattern throughout the year, with catalysts including regulatory clarification and deepening institutional layouts.