Jamesvanst
It seems we are entering a period combining ISM expansion with metals topping and correcting.
This will drive huge rotation into growth and Bitcoin.
This will drive huge rotation into growth and Bitcoin.
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Jamesvanst
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I'm hoping the end of the 10am NY slam comes to an end this week.
I think it was partly due to the October crash, where entities had to sell after being margin called (I think this is largely over).
Now it's EOY tax loss harvesting: most people are underwater if they bought BTC/IBIT. Investors sell assets at a loss to realize those losses and offset capital gains or taxable income.
While, at the start of the new year, institutions rebalance, deploy new capital as budgets reset, and realign portfolios. Eyes on Jan. 2.
I think it was partly due to the October crash, where entities had to sell after being margin called (I think this is largely over).
Now it's EOY tax loss harvesting: most people are underwater if they bought BTC/IBIT. Investors sell assets at a loss to realize those losses and offset capital gains or taxable income.
While, at the start of the new year, institutions rebalance, deploy new capital as budgets reset, and realign portfolios. Eyes on Jan. 2.
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More tin foil hat theory.
Morgan Stanley were among the main beneficiaries of the bitcoin correction through the structure of the IBIT note.
MS collects structuring and distribution fees at issuance. As prices fell, the probability of early autocall declined, extending the life of the note and allowing MS to earn additional carry and hedging related income.
The important part is: once IBIT fell more than roughly 25% and breached the downside barrier, losses were transferred to note holders.
From that point on, investors absorbed losses one for one as prices continued to fall. Further drawdow
Morgan Stanley were among the main beneficiaries of the bitcoin correction through the structure of the IBIT note.
MS collects structuring and distribution fees at issuance. As prices fell, the probability of early autocall declined, extending the life of the note and allowing MS to earn additional carry and hedging related income.
The important part is: once IBIT fell more than roughly 25% and breached the downside barrier, losses were transferred to note holders.
From that point on, investors absorbed losses one for one as prices continued to fall. Further drawdow
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If Bitcoin were doing what silver is currently doing, I would be 100% confident in a 70% drawdown.
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The best investments over the past 2 decades have been non-cash flowing assets.
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History would suggest bitcoin ranges between $70k-$90k for the next few months.
Perfectly normal with the melt up in metals
CME futures data
Perfectly normal with the melt up in metals
CME futures data
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sell btc buy gold
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The IBIT gap closed immediately as the market opened.
New Bitcoin futures toys for Wall Street.
New Bitcoin futures toys for Wall Street.
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History suggests that once silver experiences a blow-off top, at least a 50% correction follows (1980 and 2011).
Unless this time is different? New world order?
This metals rally like all rally's is momentum-driven, which accelerated the day risk assets put in its bottom.
At some point the money flows back. The most irrational times are at the top.
Unless this time is different? New world order?
This metals rally like all rally's is momentum-driven, which accelerated the day risk assets put in its bottom.
At some point the money flows back. The most irrational times are at the top.
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If BTC holds or grinds higher into tomorrow's expiry, $88k, $89k, more calls expire ITM.
This reduces dealer short-gamma hedging, essentially the cap on upside eases into expiry.
This reduces dealer short-gamma hedging, essentially the cap on upside eases into expiry.
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Feels weird not staring at charts
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At $87,500, Bitcoin is sitting exactly in the middle of the $85,000 put gamma wall and the $90,000 call gamma wall.
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SPX/Gold on a major support line.
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SPX/Gold on a major support line.
Looks like its a repeat of the 70's.
Looks like its a repeat of the 70's.
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I always look at things in probabilities.
They were once joined at the hip.
Will they join forces next year?
I think so. If so, good for Bitcoin.
They were once joined at the hip.
Will they join forces next year?
I think so. If so, good for Bitcoin.
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If the market was pricing in near-term risk for EOY options for bitcoin the implied volatility wouldn't be sitting near three-month lows.
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Three of the top eight assets by market cap are, by definition, "unproductive".
This allocation of capital diverts resources from growth, further erodes trust in the fiat system, increases inequality, and slows innovation.
Unfortunately all inevitable on this current trajectory
This allocation of capital diverts resources from growth, further erodes trust in the fiat system, increases inequality, and slows innovation.
Unfortunately all inevitable on this current trajectory
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Never listen to anyone who says not to invest in an asset class that's too big.
Gold's market cap has increased by $13T
Silver's market cap has increased by $1.6T
Price is set at the margin.
Gold's market cap has increased by $13T
Silver's market cap has increased by $1.6T
Price is set at the margin.
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Gold about to break out against the M2 money supply, 15 years in the making.
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The worst Q4 for Bitcoin in 7 years.
Bitcoin went onto appreciate 170% over the following two quarters.
Bitcoin went onto appreciate 170% over the following two quarters.
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