A friend privately messaged me asking, can counterfeit coins still make a comeback?

These past few days, I received a private message that hit right at the core: Is there still a way out? Is there a chance to recover the losses? The sender said they’ve been continuously averaging down and adding to their position since last year, pushing their cost basis close to 28 yuan. When they opened their account, they saw that their original hundreds of thousands of yuan in capital had dwindled to just a few tens of thousands, barely holding on. I can imagine how that feels.

I looked at the chart and saw that the once-popular leading hotspot has now become a complete free fall. Seeing this trend, I felt a twinge of sadness. It’s not just for this one person, but for countless investors facing the same situation.

Cutting Losses or Holding On, Deep Despair in Between

When that wave of confidence was at its peak, they swore that the project was a belief, and that the leader would inevitably break new highs. And now? Most of those people are silent. Not because they don’t want to speak, but because they truly don’t know what to say.

Cut losses—yet unwilling to sell at the bottom, reluctant to pay the small fee. Hold on—yet every day, watching the price, their hearts grow colder. Is this what they call “faith”? Faith proves worthless in the face of market trends.

I told this friend honestly: If you’re still dreaming of bouncing back from 28 yuan to the previous high, or even making a profit and walking away, ask yourself—why should that happen? The market never talks about “why,” only about supply and demand.

What does a real rebound require? A new crazy bull run and complete forgetfulness

To be blunt, this coin might rebound someday, giving you a glimmer of hope. But to return to the cost basis of 28 yuan or even exit with a profit? Only if there’s another market-wide frenzy, blowing those so-called “junk coins” back into the sky.

The question is, do you still believe that will happen? I certainly don’t.

The fate of copycat projects is always the same—eventually, they all experience a complete collapse. Some investors recognize this early, cut their losses quickly and walk away after paying a small fee; others let their accounts shrink to almost nothing, watching their judgment prove wrong, only then admitting they were mistaken.

This isn’t just one person’s story; it’s the destiny of every wave of meme coins. And those who wake up from the private messages and endless regret in their circle of friends might be the ones who truly learned something.