Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga RBA mendorong AUD/USD menguat, ketidaksepakatan kebijakan bank sentral menjadi lebih jelas

The interest rate hike signals released by the (RBA) of Australia are becoming the main support factor for the recent AUD/USD exchange rate. As market expectations of the RBA adopting a tightening policy in 2026 increase, the Australian dollar rose to 0.6690 during the Asian session on Friday, recovering from the previous trading day’s decline.

Economic data will determine the RBA’s policy direction

Australia will release the fourth quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on January 28, which is crucial for the central bank’s decision-making. Market analysts generally believe that if core inflation data exceeds expectations, the RBA may initiate a rate hike at the policy meeting on February 3. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock previously stated that although the board has not directly discussed raising interest rates, it has assessed scenarios where rates may need to be increased in 2026. According to the December meeting minutes, policymakers are prepared to adopt a more tightening monetary policy stance if inflation fails to fall as expected.

Manufacturing data shows growth momentum slowing

Australia’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December was reported at 51.6, slightly below the previous 52.2, remaining flat from November. Although the index remains at a three-month high, the growth rate of production and new orders has slowed, indicating that economic growth momentum is gradually weakening.

Federal Reserve policy divergence supports AUD/USD

A weaker US dollar provides another layer of support for the Australian dollar. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice further in 2026, which contrasts sharply with the potential rate hikes by the RBA, indicating a clear divergence in the policy trajectories of the two major central banks. Market expectations suggest that President Donald Trump will appoint a new Federal Reserve Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, potentially leading to further easing of US monetary policy. The December meeting minutes of the (FOMC) show that most participants favored pausing further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. However, some Fed officials believe that maintaining stable rates after three rate cuts in 2025, which supported a weak labor market, might be a more prudent choice.

Policy divergence broadens AUD outlook

The current trend of AUD/USD reflects a deeper phenomenon: two central banks are standing at completely different policy crossroads. The Reserve Bank of Australia faces inflationary pressures requiring tightening, while the Federal Reserve is preparing to further loosen policy amid a weakening labor market. This divergence in policy expectations will continue to provide upward momentum for the Australian dollar against the US dollar.