Have you ever thought that market rises and falls are not actually random?
Recently, I’ve been studying something very interesting called the Benner cycle, which was proposed by an American farmer and entrepreneur from the 19th century, Samuel Benner.
Honestly, when I first heard about this theory, I was a bit skeptical.
Can a farmer summarize the规律 of financial markets?
But after delving deeper, I found Samuel Benner’s observations are indeed worth paying attention to.
This guy made money from pig farming and other agricultural activities, but also lost money.
It was through experiencing multiple financial crises and agricultural recessions that he started to ponder why these cyclical crashes kept repeating.
In 1875, Samuel Benner published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices," which describes a very规律的 market cycle pattern.
He discovered that market panic, expansion, and recession seem to follow an 18 to 20-year cycle.
This discovery later became known as the Benner cycle.
He divided this cycle into three parts.
The first type is "Year A," which is the panic year.
In these years, the market experiences significant declines, such as 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, and 2019.
The second type is "Year B," which is a good time to sell.
During this period, the market is at a high, and asset valuations are inflated, such as 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, and 2007.
The third type is "Year C," which is the best time to buy.
In these years, the market is at a low point, and asset prices are cheap, such as 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, and 2012.
Interestingly, Samuel Benner initially studied agricultural product prices, like iron, corn, and pork prices.
But later traders and economists extended his theory to stocks, bonds, and even today’s cryptocurrency markets.
Speaking of cryptocurrencies, I think the Benner cycle is especially applicable here.
Bitcoin has its own four-year halving cycle, which itself reflects a certain规律性.
And the crypto market’s emotional swings are especially intense, from extreme greed to extreme fear, which perfectly aligns with Samuel Benner’s cycle theory.
According to the Benner cycle, 2019 was indeed a panic year, with the market experiencing a significant correction.
And based on his theory, 2026 should be a bullish year.
This means that if history repeats itself, we might see a relatively strong market cycle.
For crypto traders, understanding this cycle is very useful.
Selling at high points in Year B and buying at low points in Year C is a simple but effective long-term strategy.
Especially for mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, this cyclical pattern seems to keep repeating.
In short, Samuel Benner is telling us that the market’s madness and fear, although it seems random, actually follow规律.
These规律 come from human nature—alternating between greed and fear.
For modern traders, regardless of the assets they trade, understanding these long-term变化 can help us make smarter decisions.
Recently, I’ve also been watching some related crypto assets on Gate, and if you’re interested, you can check out the market trends and compare them with the Benner cycle predictions.
