#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing Polymarket's move, my thoughts drifted back to those years. The ICO boom in 2017, the frenzy of DeFi Summer in 2020, and now the reshuffling in the L2 track—each wave of ecosystem self-reinvention is accompanied by a questioning of "infrastructure."

Polymarket's decision to migrate out of Polygon to push its own L2 appears to be a technical upgrade on the surface, but fundamentally reflects a repeatedly validated rule: when a platform's transaction volume surpasses a certain threshold, the tolerance for underlying infrastructure faults sharply increases. The December Polygon outage's impact on Polymarket essentially questions—can you really entrust your users' assets and trading experience to someone else's stability?

This reminds me of the lessons from the 2014 altcoin crash and the 2018 public chain competition failures. Sovereignty over the ecosystem has never been optional; it is a matter of life and death. Polymarket's decision to abandon third-party providers like GoldSky and Alchemy sounds aggressive, but logically makes sense—when your transaction volume is large enough, relying on others exposes your critical path to their SLA.

The launch of the 5-minute market is another signal. Prediction markets are evolving from a niche financial experiment with long cycles and low participation into high-frequency, fragmented interaction modes. I have seen this transition in many emerging tracks—the closer to mainstream applications, the more they need to meet users' real-time demands.

What truly warrants reflection is: can Polymarket complete its transformation from "an application on Polygon" to an "independent ecosystem participant" through building its own L2? This is not only a technical choice but also a watershed moment for ecosystem psychology.