Trump "concedes" and lowers tariffs? The new chess game of global competition in 2025

The Truth About Trump's "Softening": The Dual Dilemma of Inflation and Supply Chain

Trump's statement this time is by no means a whim, but rather a concentrated reflection of internal and external pressures. In March 2025, the core CPI in the United States rose by 2.8% year-on-year, and used car prices soared by 18%. The 145% tariff imposed on China on April 10 further drove up prices, increasing the average annual expenditure of American middle-class families by about $5,200. If tariffs continue to escalate, inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike threshold, severely impacting Trump's "Tax Cuts 2.0" plan and his prospects for re-election.

A deeper crisis stems from the Supply Chain. On April 11, the United States exempted tariffs on 20 categories of Chinese goods, including smartphones and chips, because 75% of the global chip packaging and testing capacity is concentrated in China, and the US F-35 fighter jet heavily relies on Chinese rare earths. The Trump team gradually realized that forced "decoupling" would not only fail to weaken China but could instead reverse the US technology industry by a decade. Under the dual pressure of high inflation and the fragility of the Supply Chain, Trump had to adjust his strategy, seeking political breathing room by "softening" and reducing tariffs.

The Calculation of Elections and Capital: The Driving Forces Behind the Triple Game

The year 2025 is the U.S. election year, and Trump's tariff statements are essentially a "three birds with one stone" political and economic maneuver, precisely leveraging votes and capital:

The political magic of swing states: Manufacturing states like Ohio have profited significantly from tariffs on China, with a 30% increase in profits in the steel industry. However, high tariffs have also led to an increase in the prices of auto parts, resulting in local auto plants laying off 12,000 workers. Trump's phased "unwinding" of tariffs creates the illusion of manufacturing returning while also soothing unemployed voters, thereby stabilizing swing state votes.

Wall Street's capital frenzy: The tariff exemption policy allows Apple to save $3.8 billion in costs each year, and Intel's stock price surged 7% in a single day. According to Goldman Sachs data, hedge funds are positioning themselves for short-term rebounds and long-term strangulation strategies through "tariff options." If the policy fluctuates after 30 days, cross-border capital will complete a perfect arbitrage cycle.

Inflation and Interest Rate Cut Expectation Management Lowering tariffs can temporarily suppress CPI, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. Interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut has risen from 41% to 67%, directly benefiting the earnings season for US stocks. Trump leverages this to stabilize market confidence, adding points to his election campaign.

The Way Out for China: Four Strong Cards to Secure Victory

In the face of Trump's psychological warfare on tariffs, China has calmly laid out its strategy and strategic foresight, revealing four trump cards to firmly take the initiative:

Energy Dark Line: Global Breakthrough in RMB Settlement On April 18, the positions of Shanghai crude oil futures surged by 28%, as Middle Eastern countries accepted RMB settlement for crude oil contracts for the first time. This move effectively hedges against the impact of US tariffs on energy pricing power and consolidates China's voice in the global energy market.

Rare Earth Nuclear Bomb: Precision Strike on the U.S. Military Industry. In early April, China initiated rare earth export controls, with each F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kilograms of Chinese rare earths, while the Pentagon's inventory is only enough to last for 6 months. This move hits the lifeblood of the U.S. military industry's Supply Chain, forcing the U.S. side to be more cautious at the negotiating table.

Technological Breakthrough: Hard-core Countermeasures of Independent Innovation. Huawei's smart driving chip shipments have exceeded 2 million units, with market share in North America increasing to 17% against the trend; SMIC is collaborating with domestic companies to advance 2-nanometer technology research and gradually breaking the "strangling" restrictions imposed by the U.S. The technological gap is making tariffs increasingly ineffective.

Supply Chain Reconstruction: The Firewall Between Southeast Asia and Central Europe. Companies like Xiyin and Temu are accelerating their capacity transfer to Vietnam and Mexico, with the number of China-Europe freight trains exceeding 20,000. ASEAN trade volume has increased by 18%. The capacity of Chinese-funded automotive factories in Mexico has grown by 340% within three years, and the occupancy rate of Chinese industrial parks in Haiphong, Vietnam, has exceeded 90%. The "second supply chain" in Southeast Asia has become a solid barrier for China against tariff shocks.

Three Major Variables in the Eye of the Storm: Potential Trigger Points of Global Chaos

Although the current situation seems to be easing, three major variables may trigger new uncertainties in the future:

Black Swan in Agricultural Products: The century-old flood in the Midwest of the United States has caused soybean futures volatility to reach an all-time high. If Trump restarts tariffs to secure votes from agricultural states, global food prices may soar again, pushing up inflation.

The digital currency covert battle is approaching the Bitcoin halving. If the United States uses tariffs to suppress the Renminbi, cryptocurrencies may become a new channel for capital flight, disrupting the global financial order.

The competition between the US and Europe has escalated, with Germany launching an anti-dumping investigation into US liquefied natural gas. If a full-scale tariff war breaks out between the US and Europe, the global Supply Chain will face a "nuclear explosion level" impact, and the Asia-Pacific market may be affected.

Conclusion: The Game Changer Becomes the Player

Trump's tariff "easing" is the opening bell for the 2025 global capital game. The apparent compromise is, in fact, a precise calculation of inflation, votes, and the reconstruction of the Supply Chain. However, China has already built a high wall of countermeasures based on energy, rare earths, technology, and a diversified trade network. In this war without gunpowder, the big stick of unilateralism will ultimately be abandoned by history. Only countries that can grasp the dark currents of capital and master core technologies can secure victory in the midst of chaos.

While the United States is still wielding the tariff lever, China has quietly completed its global layout. History has repeatedly proven that those who build walls ultimately become trapped by them, while those who break the game become the players. In the global chess game of 2025, China is confidently and wisely writing a new chapter.

The Truth About Trump's "Softening": The Dual Dilemma of Inflation and Supply Chain

Trump's statement is not a spur-of-the-moment decision, but a concentrated reflection of internal and external pressures. In March 2025, the core CPI in the United States rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with used car prices soaring by 18%. The 145% tariff imposed on China on April 10 further pushed up prices, resulting in an average annual expenditure increase of about $5,200 for American middle-class families. If tariffs continue to escalate, inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike threshold, severely damaging Trump's "Tax Cut 2.0" plan and his prospects for re-election.

The deeper crisis comes from the supply chain. On April 11, the United States exempted 20 categories of Chinese goods such as smartphones and chips, because 75% of the world's chip packaging and testing capacity is concentrated in China, and the United States F-35 fighter jets are highly dependent on Chinese rare earths. The Trump team has come to realize that forced "decoupling" will not only fail to weaken China, but could set the US tech industry back a decade. Under the double blow of high inflation pressure and supply chain fragility, Trump had to adjust his strategy and "loosen" tariff cuts in exchange for political survival.

The Calculations of Elections and Capital: The Behind-the-Scenes Players of the Triple Game

2025 is a presidential election year in the United States, and Trump's tariff stance is actually a "three birds with one stone" political and economic maneuver, precisely leveraging votes and capital:

The political magic of swing states. Manufacturing states like Ohio have greatly benefited from tariffs on China, with a 30% increase in profits for the steel industry. However, high tariffs have also led to rising prices for auto parts, resulting in local auto manufacturers laying off 12,000 workers. Trump’s phased "relaxation" of tariffs creates an illusion of manufacturing returning while soothing unemployed voters to stabilize swing state ballots.

Wall Street's capital frenzy. The tariff exemption policy allows Apple to save $3.8 billion in costs annually, while Intel's stock price rose 7% in a single day. According to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds are positioning themselves for short-term rebounds and long-term strangulation strategies through "tariff options." If the policy fluctuates after 30 days, cross-border capital will complete a perfect round of arbitrage.

Inflation and Interest Rate Cut Expectation Management Lowering tariffs can temporarily suppress CPI, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates in June. Interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut has risen from 41% to 67%, directly benefiting the US stock earnings season. Trump leverages this to stabilize market confidence and gain an edge in the election race.

China's Breakthrough Strategy: Four Cards to Ensure Victory

In the face of Trump's psychological warfare on tariffs, China calmly laid out its plans and strategic foresight, revealing four trump cards to firmly take the initiative:

Energy Dark Line: Global Breakthrough in Renminbi Settlement On April 18, the trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures surged by 28%, and Middle Eastern countries accepted Renminbi settlement for crude oil contracts for the first time. This move effectively hedges against the impact of U.S. tariffs on energy pricing power and consolidates China's voice in the global energy market.

Rare Earth Nuclear Bomb: Precisely Striking the US Military Industry In early April, China initiated a rare earth export control, requiring 417 kilograms of Chinese rare earths for each F-35 fighter jet, while the Pentagon's inventory is only sufficient to last for 6 months. This move directly hits the lifeline of the US military industry's Supply Chain, forcing the US side to be more cautious at the negotiating table.

Technological Breakthrough: Hardcore Countermeasures of Independent Innovation. Huawei's smart driving chip shipments exceed 2 million units, with market share in North America rising against the trend to 17%; SMIC collaborates with domestic companies to advance 2-nanometer technology research and gradually breaks the "stranglehold" restrictions imposed by the United States. The technological gap is rendering tariff measures increasingly ineffective.

Supply Chain Reconstruction: Firewall Between Southeast Asia and Central Europe. Companies like Xiyin and Temu are accelerating the transfer of production capacity to Vietnam and Mexico, with the number of China-Europe Railway Express trains exceeding 20,000. ASEAN trade volume has increased by 18%. The production capacity of Chinese-funded automobile factories in Mexico has grown by 340% in three years, and the occupancy rate of Chinese industrial parks in Haiphong, Vietnam, is over 90%. The "second supply chain" in Southeast Asia has become a solid barrier for China against tariff impacts.

Three Major Variables in the Eye of the Storm: Potential Trigger Points of Global Chaos

Although the current situation seems to have eased, three major variables could ignite new uncertainties in the future:

Black Swan in Agricultural Products: The century-old flooding in the Midwest of the United States has led to a historic high in soybean futures volatility. If Trump reinstates tariffs to secure votes from agricultural states, global food prices may soar again, driving up inflation.

The digital currency shadow war approaches the Bitcoin halving. If the U.S. uses tariffs to suppress the yuan, cryptocurrencies may become a new channel for capital outflow, disrupting the global financial order.

If a full-scale tariff war breaks out between the United States and Europe, the global supply chain will face a "nuclear explosion" impact, and the Asia-Pacific market may be implicated.

Conclusion: The Breakthrough Player Becomes the Chess Player

Trump's tariff "softening" is the opening whistle of the 2025 global capital game. The apparent compromise is, in fact, a precise calculation involving inflation, votes, and the restructuring of the Supply Chain. However, relying on energy, rare earths, technology, and a diversified trade network, China has long built a high wall for countermeasures. In this war without gunpowder, the big stick of unilateralism will eventually be discarded by history; only those countries that can perceive the undercurrents of capital and master core technologies can secure victory amid chaos.

While the United States is still wielding tariff levers, China has quietly completed its global layout. History has proven time and again that those who build walls will eventually be trapped by the wall, and those who break the game will become chess players. In the global chess game of 2025, China is writing a new chapter with self-confidence and wisdom.