Bitcoin returns to $80k: Technical MACD bullish, on-chain data hits two-year lows, how far can this rally go?

Bitcoin has performed strongly recently, surpassing $80k for the first time since January on Monday. This may signal a bullish outlook for the market, with potential for higher targets. However, there is a clear contradiction between the optimistic technical indicators and the sluggish on-chain activity data.

From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the bullish MACD crossover confirmed on the weekly chart on April 13 has driven its price up by 15%.

Historical data shows that such weekly-level signals tend to be sustained: the crossover in October 2023 led to a 147% increase, in October 2024 a 75% rise, and in May 2025 a 35% increase.

Martinez believes that if Bitcoin can break through the key resistance at the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA) near $83,000, it could further rise to $89,000 or even $94,000, and $100,000 is not out of reach.

Bitcoin's trading price today once reached over $81,000, up 21% in the past 30 days, with trading volume increasing 43% week-over-week to nearly $49 billion, indicating increased market participation.

Despite the bullish technical outlook, on-chain data has cooled off. According to Santiment charts, despite the price rebound, Bitcoin network activity has fallen to a two-year low: daily active transfer wallets and newly created wallets are both near historic lows.

This apparent disconnect between price and network activity suggests that the current rally is mainly driven by large holders and institutions, rather than widespread retail participation.

According to historical patterns, price increases with low participation tend to be more fragile. When the market turns, if buy-side support is insufficient to absorb selling, the seemingly positive price trend may conceal underlying risks.

Trader “Doctor Profit” has a more pessimistic view, asserting that the current zone is the final stage of a bull trap, predicting a new wave of sharp declines ahead.

Overall, the market is at a critical point where bullish and bearish views are fiercely colliding. The future direction remains uncertain—whether the upward trend indicated by technical indicators will continue, or whether poor on-chain data will lead to a downturn—this remains the focus of market participants.

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