2月24日消息，链上调查员ZachXBT在社交平台发文称将于2月26日发布对加密行业“最赚钱公司之一”的重大调查后，预测市场迅速升温。围绕“下一家被曝光内幕交易的加密公司”这一事件的押注交易量已接近300万美元，市场情绪明显转向高度投机与信息博弈。
该预测合约集中反映了交易者对潜在调查对象的判断，而非已确认事实。作为基于区块链的预测平台，Polymarket允许用户以真实资金交易现实事件结果合约，其赔率通常被视为市场信心与预期分布的即时指标，因此在2024年美国大选后逐渐成为加密行业观察未决事件的重要风向工具。
截至亚洲时段早盘，Solana生态流动性平台Meteora以约43%的概率领先，并贡献超过30万美元交易量。社区讨论焦点主要围绕Meme币初始流动性机制及早期价格波动受益者问题。此外，Axiom与Pump.fun分别以13%和12%的占比位列其后，其中Pump.fun单项交易量最高，显示市场分歧较大而非单边共识。
同时，Jupiter与某CEX的赔率也进入前列，反映出市场对Solana DeFi路由机制、代币上线节奏及“巨鲸友好型流动性”的持续讨论。值得注意的是，Axiom、Pump.fun和Jupiter的赔率自开盘以来下降超过三成，而Meteora优势扩大，说明投机资金正在从分散猜测转向更集中判断。
不过，预测市场本质上定价的是信念而非证据。当前赔率仅代表数千名参与者基于公开信息、历史调查风格及社交线索的集体推测，并不构成任何实质性指控。随着调查发布日期临近，加密市场舆情、内幕交易风险预期以及链上调查动态，可能在短期内持续影响相关项目关注度与资金流向。
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