高盛警告霍尔木兹海峡风险:亚洲或面临局部「油荒」与价格飙升

BlockBeatNews

BlockBeats 消息,4 月 6 日,高盛最新报告指出,受中东冲突影响,霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源运输要道承压,石油供应链正遭遇极限压力,局部「油荒」风险正在上升。

高盛分析称,冲击在亚洲尤为明显,多个经济体高度依赖波斯湾能源进口,部分国家约 50% 燃料来自该地区,而韩国、新加坡等对中东依赖度更高。

尽管当前尚未出现全球性断供,但通过库存消耗、贸易重定向及出口限制等手段维持的缓冲正在减弱。数据显示,3 月下旬亚洲石油净进口量已出现明显下滑,反映供应压力快速上升。

分品类来看,石脑油和液化石油气(LPG)因库存紧张已出现严重短缺,同时柴油和航空燃油价格持续上涨,叠加市场囤货行为进一步推高波动。

部分国家已出现燃料配给或供应中断迹象,印度、泰国等地开始采取干预措施应对。

高盛强调,目前尚未构成结构性全球供应危机,但若霍尔木兹海峡扰动持续,局部能源短缺与油价飙升将进一步加剧,尤其冲击对进口依赖度高的地区。

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