摩根大通警告美股或因中东战事下跌10%,市场尚未做好准备

Gate News 消息,3 月 9 日,摩根大通交易部门表示,伊朗战争可能引发标普 500 指数(美国股市基准指数)从高点下跌多达 10%,美国股市交易员对此尚未做好准备。摩根大通全球市场情报主管 Andrew Tyler 周一表示,由于中东冲突没有缓和迹象,油价突破每桶 100 美元,因此他对美股转为"战术性看空"。若出现回调,这意味着标普 500 指数将较高点下跌 10% 至约 6270 点,较上周五收盘水平低约 7%。Tyler 称,投资者目前的仓位并未为下跌做好准备,“当前仓位整体中性,缺乏极端去风险操作”。由于交易员"预期局势将缓和",上周能源股遭到净抛售。然而在数个海湾国家减产后,油价跃升至每桶 100 美元以上,引发市场对长期供应冲击以及滞胀风险的担忧。Tyler 认为,如果冲突不持续,这些风险可能很快消退。“一旦冲突出现明确的缓和路径,这一战术性判断将结束,因为潜在的宏观基本面仍然支持风险资产。”

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