中東地緣政治緊張局勢升溫之際,全球最大避險基金「橋水(Bridgewater Associates)」創辦人達利歐(Ray Dalio) 再度為黃金背書,並對比特幣的提出質疑。然而,市場走勢卻在同一時間給出了耐人尋味的回應。
周二,素有「鱷王」之稱的 Ray Dalio 在知名播客節目 《All-In Podcast》中表示,投資人不應再將比特幣與黃金相提並論。他列舉比特幣「缺乏央行背書」、「毫無隱私」及「量子運算威脅」這 3 大罪狀,重申「黃金才是唯一真神」。
他表示,「這世上只有一個黃金」、「黃金是最成熟的貨幣」,更是各國央行持有的第二大儲備貨幣。
然而,市場走勢卻給了這些大師一記響亮的耳光。就在 Ray Dalio 發表上述言論當日,金價重挫 168 美元至每盎司 5,128 美元,單日跌幅達 3%;反觀比特幣,僅微幅修正 0.7%,穩守在 68,700 美元關卡。
目前美、伊戰爭已進入第 5 天,市場正處於地緣政治的高度焦慮中。 Ray Dalio 一向主張黃金是亂世中的最強護盾,但諷刺的是,在最需要避險的時刻,黃金的跌勢反而比加密貨幣更為慘重。
事實上,比特幣、黃金走勢「脫鉤」並非頭一遭,去年 7 月至 10 月初,比特幣與黃金走勢尚且同步,直到加密貨幣市場爆發 200 億美元清算潮之後,兩者走勢自此分道揚鑣。
若從 10 月高點算起,比特幣已大幅回檔逾 45%;而同一時期的黃金,卻拉出一波高達 30% 的強勁漲幅,一舉衝破 5,100 美元大關。
細看這次地緣衝突期間的市場波動:在周六軍事打擊爆發之初,金價確實一度飆升,但隨著戰火蔓延、市場焦點轉向原油供應中斷的隱憂時,黃金便無力支撐,將漲幅全數回吐。另一頭,比特幣雖在周六遭遇恐慌性拋售,卻在周日伊朗最高領袖哈米尼(Khamenei)死訊傳出後展開強勢反彈。
這一連串的劇烈震盪,印證了一個血淋淋的事實:這次沒有任何一項資產能完美扮演「資金避風港」的角色。兩者同樣面臨劇烈震盪,只不過,比特幣的波動幅度相對較小。
平心而論,達里歐對加密貨幣的質疑已是老生常談。他緊咬比特幣的「透明度」痛點,直指「每一筆交易都能被監控,甚至可能被直接操控」。他高度懷疑,各國央行怎麼可能去大量囤積一種運作在公開帳本上的資產;同時,他也再次點名量子運算是懸在比特幣頭上的長期生存危機。
不過,Ray Dalio 並非全然看空比特幣。為求資產多樣化,他的個人投資組合中仍保留了約 1% 的比特幣配置;他甚至曾在去年 7 月大膽建議,在美國債務雪球越滾越大的情況下,投資人應將 15% 的資金配置於比特幣或黃金,並稱這是「風險報酬比最佳」的選擇。
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