3月3日消息，截至今日，比特币交易价格徘徊在68,000美元附近，过去24小时上涨约2.6%。今年以来，比特币价格仍下跌约22%，相比2025年10月历史高点下跌超过40%。VanEck CEO Jan van Eck 在接受CNBC采访时表示，他认为比特币目前正在筑底。
van Eck 指出，比特币的四年一次减半周期是当前熊市的主要驱动因素，而非基本面变化。“比特币连续三年上涨，然后在第四年出现回调，2026年正是这一周期的第四年。”他补充道，比特币供应量上限为2100万枚，矿工每四年获得一半的区块奖励，这一结构性因素形成了价格周期。
此外，van Eck 表示，比特币近期复苏也与美以空袭伊朗及伊朗反击引发的地缘政治紧张局势有关。他提到，加密货币支付渠道在冲突地区能够绕开传统银行体系进行资金转移，以阿联酋和迪拜为例。
尽管地缘政治紧张，美国现货比特币ETF资金流入依然强劲。据SoSoValue数据，周二ETF单日资金流入约4.58亿美元，为本季度最高水平，上周连续三个交易日ETF累计流入约11亿美元，其中贝莱德旗下IBIT基金占一半。新加坡交易公司QCP Capital指出，周末地缘政治消息引发约3亿美元多头平仓，但整体“可控”，期权市场隐含波动率一度升至93%，随后回落，显示交易员多为对冲风险。
二月份，比特币价格主要在6万至7万美元区间波动。周一曾触及69,213美元高点，但未能突破7万美元关口。截至周二美国东部时间凌晨1点25分，比特币交易价格为67,884美元。分析师提醒，中东局势仍不明朗，市场风险偏好脆弱，短期内价格仍可能受到地缘政治事件影响。
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