在美元走弱與聯準會降息預期升溫的背景下，市場開始重新評估比特幣與加密貨幣的中長期前景，分析師普遍認為，2026 年可能成為數位資產行情的重要轉折點。
（前情提要：投資銀行Cantor Fitzgerald：比特幣進入「加密寒冬」恐持續承壓，但機構點亮產業轉型曙光）
（背景補充：彭博策略師 Mike McGlone 警告：比特幣明年先跌到 5 萬美元，最後崩盤至 1 萬美元）
本文目錄
- 比特幣陷入盤整，未能跟上貴金屬漲勢
- 美元創多年最大年度跌幅，降息成市場共識
- 聯準會內部意見分歧，利率政策仍存變數
- 政治不確定性升高，美元霸權受關注
- 分析師：寬鬆資金環境有利加密資產
在經歷了動盪且表現不如預期的一年後，比特幣與整體加密貨幣市場，正站在新的十字路口。據《Forbes》報導，隨著市場對美國聯準會（Fed）未來降息的預期逐步升溫，加上美元走弱跡象浮現，多名分析師認為，這些宏觀因素可能在 2026 年為比特幣帶來新一波上漲動能。
比特幣陷入盤整，未能跟上貴金屬漲勢
近期黃金與白銀價格持續走高，但比特幣表現相對疲弱，價格長時間徘徊在約 9 萬美元附近，未能迎來明顯突破。市場普遍認為，這反映投資人仍在觀望聯準會政策走向，以及全球資金環境是否即將出現實質轉變。
美元創多年最大年度跌幅，降息成市場共識
分析指出，美元今年兌一籃子主要貨幣的跌幅接近 10%，為 2017 年以來最劇烈的年度下滑。市場認為，這樣的走勢與聯準會未來可能降息的預期密切相關。
對此，ING 首席國際經濟學家 James Knightley 表示，與其他主要央行相比，聯準會在政策立場上仍顯得相對寬鬆，整體仍處於「貨幣寬鬆模式」。在此背景下，美元後續走弱的可能性，已成為投資人關注的焦點。
聯準會內部意見分歧，利率政策仍存變數
聯準會最新公布的會議紀錄顯示，即便官員已做出降息決定，但聯準會內部對於後續是否繼續調整利率，仍存在明顯分歧。部分決策者認為，在本次（12 月）調整後，利率可能需要維持不變一段時間，以觀察經濟數據變化。
同時根據 CME FedWatch 工具顯示，投資人目前預期聯準會在 1 月下旬會議上按兵不動的機率超過八成，但其他預測平台則認為，今年中前再次降息的可能性仍然偏高。
政治不確定性升高，美元霸權受關注
除了貨幣政策本身，美國政治因素也成為市場變數之一。美國總統川普近期再度對聯準會施壓，引發外界對央行獨立性與政策方向的討論。
前美國財政部官員、智庫 OMFIF 美國主席 Mark Sobel 指出，政治因素對美元國際地位的影響，或許是長期且緩慢的過程，但已足以對市場心理造成壓力。
分析師：寬鬆資金環境有利加密資產
多位加密貨幣市場人士認為，一旦聯準會正式進入降息循環，資金成本下降，將有利於風險性資產表現，其中比特幣往往被視為主要受益者。
加密貨幣託管公司 Unchained 市場研究主管 Timot Lamarre 表示，貨幣政策轉向寬鬆，意味著市場將迎來更充裕的美元流動性，而比特幣通常會在這樣的環境中率先反應。
Clear Street 董事總經理 Owen Lau 也指出，降息可能成為 2026 年加密貨幣市場的重要催化劑，不僅有望吸引散戶回流，也可能提升機構投資人對加密資產的參與度。
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