PA Daily | Bitmine increased its holdings of ETH by over $234 million in the past week; Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling various tokens including ETH, ENA, and LDO.

Today's news highlights:

1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The First Non-Farm Payroll After the Standstill Arrives, the Crypto Market May Continue to Face Pressure

2. Arthur Hayes allegedly sold $1.66 million ETH, $733,000 ENA, and $124,000 ETHFI.

3.Arthur Hayes is suspected of once again selling $2.45 million worth of ETH, ENA, LDO, AAVE, and UNI.

4. In the past week, Bitmine has increased its holdings by 67,000 ETH, worth over 234 million USD.

5. Glassnode: Only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is in profit.

6. Tom Lee: The weakness in the crypto market is a short-term fluctuation, but now is not the time to use leverage.

7. Santiment: Retail investor panic and FUD are significantly rising, greatly increasing the likelihood of a market reversal.

8. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 10, marking its lowest level since February 27.

macro

Macro Outlook for Next Week: The First Non-Farm Payroll After the Stalemate Arrives, the Crypto Market May Continue to Face Pressure

As the sense of relief brought by the historic government shutdown in the United States gradually fades, coupled with a wave of economic data set to hit the market and concerns over whether the Federal Reserve can smoothly cut interest rates in December, cautious sentiment has taken hold on Wall Street this week. This week’s risk aversion has deepened the sell-off in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has retreated from its all-time high reached in early October, recording only a slight increase since 2025. The largest digital asset has fallen below the $95,000 mark. According to CoinGecko, after experiencing $19 billion in liquidation on October 10, leading to an evaporation of over $1 trillion in total cryptocurrency market capitalization, the crypto market continues to face pressure. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Tuesday 02:00: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat.

Thursday 03:00: The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, FOMC permanent voter, and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech.

Friday 02:40: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks as a 2025 FOMC voting member.

Friday 05:30: 2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook.

Friday 20:30: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech.

Friday 22:00: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participates in a panel discussion at the 2025 Swiss National Bank and its observers event.

The market has taken note of the numerous comments from the so-called “hawkish on inflation.” Investors have reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in December to below 50%. Before the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the market had almost fully priced in a rate cut in December.

As the sense of relief brought by the historic government shutdown in the United States gradually fades, coupled with a flood of economic data about to hit the market and concerns over whether the Federal Reserve can smoothly cut interest rates in December, Wall Street's cautious sentiment prevails this week. This week's risk aversion has deepened the sell-off of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has retreated from the historic high set in early October, recording only a slight increase from 2025 to date. This largest digital asset has fallen below the $95,000 mark. According to CoinGecko, after experiencing a $19 billion liquidation on October 10, which led to the evaporation of over $1 trillion in total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, the crypto market remains under pressure. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Tuesday 02:00: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat.

Thursday 03:00: The Federal Reserve releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks.

Friday 02:40: 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.

Friday 05:30: 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on the economic outlook.

Friday 20:30: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech.

Friday 22:00: 2026 FOMC voting member, Dallas Fed President Logan participates in a panel discussion at the “2025 Swiss National Bank and its Observers” event.

The market has taken notice of the large number of comments regarding the so-called “inflation hawks.” Investors have lowered the likelihood of a rate cut in December to below 50%. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the market had almost fully priced in a rate cut in December.

The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has decreased to 44.4%.

According to CME's “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 55.6%.

Caixin: The main suspect in the money laundering case involving 60,000 Bitcoins, Qian Zhimin, purchased them at an average price of 2815 yuan. The UK High Court will hold a disposal hearing on November 17.

According to Caixin, the main suspect in the case of laundering 60,000 bitcoins, Qian Zhimin, purchased bitcoins at an average price of 2815 yuan per coin (, with the statistical caliber unknown ). On the day she was sentenced in the UK, the price of bitcoin had inflated 266 times to 750,000 yuan per coin. Regarding the disposal of the assets involved that were frozen in the UK, the UK side has not yet effectively advanced to the stage of returning or sharing with Chinese officials. On October 30, the Hedong Branch of the Tianjin Public Security Bureau, which is investigating the Lantian Ge Rui case, also announced that the public security organs are still continuing to carry out cross-border pursuit and recovery cooperation with UK law enforcement agencies, making every effort to recover the losses of the investors. On November 17, 2025, the UK High Court will hold another hearing on the disposal of the 60,000 bitcoins.

opinion

OKX Star: A reward of 10 BTC will be given to anyone who can provide solid evidence that the OKX Wallet has a backdoor.

The founder and CEO of OKX, Star, posted on the X platform stating: “Anyone who can provide conclusive evidence proving that there is a backdoor in OKX Wallet will be rewarded with 10 BTC by our OKX Wallet team. I urge the tens of millions of users of OKX Wallet worldwide to supervise together. Security and transparency are the bottom line, and the community is welcome to review.”

Star: The OKX Wallet private key module and all related smart contracts are fully open source, which is a long-term commitment to promoting transparency and security in the industry.

Regarding the recent false accusations of “OKX Wallet having a backdoor,” OKX CEO Star posted on the X platform stating, “The private key module of OKX Wallet and all related smart contracts are fully open source. Many companies in the industry (including competitors) are using our open source code, which is our long-term commitment to promoting transparency and security in the industry. As for the non-private key modules, the source code is not open for now, as these parts belong to commercial software. Users can freely choose whether to use OKX Wallet based on their own needs and preferences.”

He further pointed out that OKX Wallet is also one of the earliest MPC non-custodial wallet service providers in the industry. Due to the limitations of early versions of MPC products in terms of market acceptance, user experience, and DApp support, we have decided to completely discontinue the old version of the MPC wallet and launch a more advanced and superior experience new generation non-custodial wallet - CeDeFi Wallet. We welcome everyone to experience it and provide us with feedback. An open-source code repository has also been attached:

labs

Glassnode: Only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is in profit.

According to Glassnode data, the relative profits of altcoins (Top 500) are stabilizing in the deep capitulation zone, with only about 5% of the supply in profit, while Bitcoin's profits have just begun to decline sharply. This unusual divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins is unprecedented in previous cycles.

Michael Saylor seemingly responds to the market decline: “If you want to ride a rocket, you must endure gravitational acceleration.”

Strategy founder Michael Saylor allegedly responded to the recent decline in the crypto market, stating on the X platform, “If you want to ride the rocket, you must be prepared to endure the gravitational acceleration.”

Tom Lee: The weakness in the crypto market is a short-term fluctuation, but now is not the time to use leverage.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, stated on platform X, “In my opinion, the weakness in cryptocurrency exhibits all the following signs: a significant gap in the balance sheet of one (or two) market makers; sharks are waiting to sell Bitcoin, attempting to trigger liquidations/price crashes. This pain is temporary and will not change Wall Street's super cycle of building Ethereum on blockchain.” Tom Lee added, “Now is not the time to use leverage. Don't let yourself get liquidated.”

Santiment: Retail panic sentiment and FUD have risen significantly, greatly increasing the likelihood of a market reversal.

The cryptocurrency sentiment analysis platform Santiment tweeted that when the discussion of Bitcoin on social media surges, although this is not a definitive signal for the cryptocurrency to bottom out, the likelihood of a market reversal greatly increases. During last Friday's drop below $95,000, the volume of related discussions reached its highest point in four months, indicating a significant rise in retail panic sentiment and market uncertainty (FUD).

The founder of Equation News has increased his holdings in BTC and is bullish on the market performance in the coming months.

According to market news, Formula News founder Vida stated in a post on his personal channel that he has increased his holdings in BTC as a long-term investment, as well as increased his holdings in a low market cap meme coin for short-term speculation over the next few months. Vida is bullish on the performance of the crypto market in the coming months because:

1. The U.S. stock market won't drop too severely. The decline in the crypto market seems to be overly panicked.
2. BTC is currently at the support level of the 1-week supertrend indicator, which is probably the most effective support in this bull market.
3. The sentiment in the altcoin market is currently overly panic-stricken, and buying during times of excessive panic tends to have a higher win rate.

Bitwise CEO: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has been broken, and it remains undefined in 2026.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley tweeted about the observation of the four-year cycle, with a common viewpoint: people believe in the four-year cycle and think that the Bitcoin price will drop in 2026.

First-order effect: People will sell in 2025 to avoid the down market year.

Second-order effect: The sell-off in 2025 caused 2025 to be a year of decline, breaking the four-year cycle.

Third-order effect: still undefined in 2026, four-year cycle has been broken.

Hunter Horsley previously stated that the four-year cycle model is based on the old era of cryptocurrency. Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the new management taking office, a brand new market structure has emerged: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. We have likely experienced nearly six months of a bear market, and the bear market is about to end.

Project Dynamics

Yala responds to suspicious circumstances related to the stablecoin YU: an investigation has been initiated and a detailed statement will be released.

Bitcoin liquidity and its native stablecoin project Yala announced on platform X that it has noted recent community concerns and is actively investigating, with more updates to be released soon. According to GoPlus alerts, the Yala stablecoin YU previously exhibited suspicious situations similar to USDX, where a certain address fully borrowed USDC and most of the YU funds from the Yala Frontier market on Euler, and has not repaid for a long time while interest rates remain high, leading to a 100% utilization rate in the market and lenders unable to exit. YU liquidity on EVM is low, with LPs appearing to be large in scale but over 90% being YU itself, making it difficult to exchange for other stable assets, posing significant risks of liquidation and depegging. Additionally, data from Coingecko shows that YU is currently priced at $0.97, still not fully restored to its peg.

Important Data

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 10, the lowest level since February 27.

Alternative data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index today is 10 (yesterday it was 16), marking the lowest level since February 27, with a weekly average of 20, indicating that the market remains in a state of “extreme fear.”

Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling $1.66 million in ETH, $733,000 in ENA, and $124,000 in ETHFI.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Arthur Hayes seems to have sold ETH, ENA, and ETHFI about 4 hours ago.

• 520 ETH (worth 1.66 million USD) sent to Binance and FalconX
• 2.62 million ENA (worth $733,000) sent to Binance, Wintermute, and FalconX
• 132,730 ETHFI (worth $124,000) sent to Wintermute

In addition, Arthur also received USDC worth 3.56 million dollars from FlowDesk.

Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling $2.45 million worth of ETH, ENA, LDO, AAVE, and UNI again.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Arthur Hayes may be selling a large amount of crypto assets, having sold 260 ETH (worth $820,000), 2.4 million ENA (worth $651,000), 640,000 LDO (worth $480,000), 1,630 AAVE (worth $289,000), and 28,670 UNI (worth $209,000).

A certain whale took a highly leveraged short position on BTC, XRP, and ZEC, with a total position value of 196 million USD.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, a certain whale has shorted BTC, XRP, and ZEC, with a total position value reaching 196 million USD: the BTC position value is 148.5 million USD (40x leverage), the XRP position value is 27.4 million USD (20x leverage), and the ZEC position value is 20.4 million USD (10x leverage).

This week, NFT trading volume fell by 5.06% to $79.48 million, while the number of buyers surged by 987%.

CryptoSlam data shows that the NFT market trading volume decreased by 5.06% to $79.48 million in the past week. The number of NFT buyers increased by 987.18% to 222,209; the number of sellers surged by 714.77% to 189,963; the number of NFT transactions fell by 20.92% to 1,097,565.

The transaction volume on the Ethereum network reached 34.29 million USD, an increase of 5.55% compared to the previous week; the transaction volume on the BNB Chain network reached 8.72 million USD, an increase of 19.50%; the transaction volume on the Bitcoin network reached 8.03 million USD, a decrease of 13.82%.

This week's high-value transactions include:

• Autoglyphs #141 sold for $199,135.19 (56 WETH).
• V1 Cryptopunks Wrapped #7139 had its first transaction price at 196,267.55 USD (57 WETH); it was sold for the second time at a price of 194,923.31 USD (57.0299 WETH).
• CryptoPunks #6207 sold for $152,619.45 (43.99 ETH).
• CryptoPunks #4427 sold for $131,430.42 (36.9 ETH).

investment and financing/acquisition

The founder of Bridgewater Capital and his son have invested over $100 million in American Bitcoin through Solari Capital.

According to Fortune, Solari Capital, the venture capital firm founded by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, and his son AJ Scaramucci, participated in the $220 million financing of American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining company related to the Trump family, in July. Solari Capital invested over $100 million, and Anthony Scaramucci himself also contributed a small amount, but both refused to disclose the specific investment amounts. It is reported that Anthony Scaramucci briefly served as White House Communications Director during President Trump's first administration but soon became a public critic of the president.

Institutional Holdings

Brown University and Emory University hold $13.8 million in IBIT and $51.82 million in Grayscale BTC Mini Trust respectively.

According to a report by Decrypt, as of September 30, Brown University (one of the eight prestigious Ivy League schools in the U.S.) held $13.8 million worth of IBIT stock; Emory University (which made the Forbes list of “New Private Ivy League Schools” in 2024) held 1,023,417 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, worth approximately $51.82 million. Emory University also disclosed holding 4,450 shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, worth about $289,000.

In the past week, Bitmine increased its holdings by 67,000 ETH, worth over 234 million USD.

According to monitoring by The Data Nerd, Bitmine has increased its holdings by 67,021 ETH (approximately $234.47 million) from platforms such as Galaxy Digital, FalconX, and Coinbase over the past week.