China Securities Construction Investment: There are no obvious fluctuations in U.S. stocks in the first half of the year It is expected that there will be greater volatility in the second half of the year due to the impact of the U.S. election

Sina Financial News Chen Guo of China Securities Construction Investment said that the current round of U.S. stock bull market is mainly driven by liquidity and AI industry trends, and has been maintained for 17 months since October 2022. At present, the market is worried about the U.S. stock market, the risk of U.S. debt is relatively small in the short term, and there is still some room for “fiscal easing” policy; although the U.S. banking industry is still facing a test, it will not evolve into a systemic crisis. The current market concerns about the high valuation of MAG7 are mainly driven by strong earnings expectations, and PEG is still in a reasonable range, but MAG7 trading concentration is on the high side, which may lead to the amplification of periodic volatility. There is no obvious fluctuation factor in the US stock market in the first half of this year, and the real variable may lie in the impact of the US election on the US stock market in the second half of the year.