Foresight Ventures: Christmas Carnival, Solana and DePIN bloom together

U.S. stocks continue to rise close to record highs, and the crypto market is in sideways fluctuations.

Written by Mike

A. Market View

1. Macro Liquidity

Currency liquidity improves. The Fed signaled that its tightening cycle is over and opened the door to a rate cut in 2024. Considering that 2024 is also an election year, the market is likely to see a more loose and moderate monetary policy environment. The market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in March next year is more than 70%, and the overall interest rate will be cut three times by about 75 basis points. The U.S. dollar index fell, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a six-month low, creating a positive environment for risky assets. U.S. stocks continue to rise close to all-time highs, and the crypto market is in sideways trading.

2. Full market conditions

Top 100 market capitalization gainers:

BTC fluctuated upward this week, and excessive leverage was removed during the correction. Investors profited from BTC and moved to riskier assets. Market hot spots revolve around the Inscription of the BTC ecosystem and the Depin of the Solana ecosystem, which are similar to the hype of ICO and Wanke Cloud in 2017.

1. COQ: It is the meme leader on the Avax chain. This round of Sol chain attracted a large amount of user funds through meme coins and airdrops, and chains such as Avax began to imitate the same.

2. MOBILE: It is the leader of this round of Depin track. Currently, most Depin projects are concentrated on the Sol chain, mainly due to its high efficiency and low price. Mobile is a sub-coin of Helium. The economic model of the mobile phone card business is similar to Filcoin. The current mining payback cycle is only 2 days, attracting a large number of hype users and studios.

3. MUBI: It is the inscription of the Brc20 ecology. Its main function is to provide cross-chain bridge services for BTC and ETH. It has increased 10 times in the past two weeks.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

The BTC hashrate, an indicator of miner profitability, is rising again due to the rise of the Inscription Token standard. The market value of BRC20 tokens is more than $3 billion, accounting for only 0.3% of the market value of BTC.

The market value of stablecoins rose by 1%. October was a critical point, with the total stablecoin supply bottoming out at $120 billion and then growing at a monthly rate of 3%. This is the first expansion of stablecoin supply since March 22, and may also be a sign of return of investor interest. USDT has become the largest stablecoin, occupying 73% of the market share.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were in the red overall. The current indicator is 1.58, entering the recovery stage.

Institutional crypto investment products recently began to experience net outflows for the first time, ending 11 consecutive weeks of net inflows. Risks gradually increase in the later stages of the market.

2) Futures market

Futures funding rate: The rate rose sharply to 0.015% this week, and the market sentiment is bullish. The market began to adjust after the BTC rate hit the highest rate this year on November 12. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is high, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, the short leverage is high, and it is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures positions: Total BTC positions increased slightly this week, basically synchronizing with price fluctuations.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.0. Retail investors’ emotions are normal. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with a reading below 0.7 indicating panic and a reading above 2.0 indicating greed. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot market

BTC continues to rise after consolidation and is expected to rise to the 48,000 pressure level. Institutional funds began to withdraw while trading, and the market structure deteriorated. Old coins are making up for their gains, local dogs are flying around, or this is the last retail investor FOMO market of this round. After this round of rise, the overall market situation in January is not optimistic, so it is recommended to be prepared in advance.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL proportion of each public chain

This week, TVL fell overall by US$170 million, down about 0.3%. Bitcoin is once again gaining momentum and preparing to break through the 45,000 mark after experiencing a healthy correction. TVL has risen and fallen this week, with the ETH chain falling by 3%, the BSC chain rising by 3%, the ARB chain and OP chain falling slightly, the Base chain rising by 14%, and the number of protocols reaching 200. The Solana chain has risen by nearly 50% this week. It has risen by 126% in the past month. The top ten mainstream public chains TVL have all risen in the past month, market hot spots continue, and the market has a good future.

3. Lock-up volume of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Polygon Lockup Amount

4)Arbitrum lock-up volume

5) Optimism lock-up amount

6) Base lock-up amount

7) Solana’s locked position

4. Changes in NFT market data

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT market situation

3) NFT trading market share

4) NFT buyer analysis

Flooring prices for leading blue-chip projects continued to fall slightly this week, but it did not erase the sharp rise in flooring prices for blue-chip projects over the past month. MAYC rose less than 1%, BAYC both fell about 4%, Pudgy Peguin fell 3%, DeGods fell 9%, and Azuki fell 7%. Although the floor price of blue-chip projects has declined in the past week, the NFT market transaction volume has continued to rise in the past week, and the use cases of NFT in GameFi and SocialFi will gradually increase in the future bull market. Whether the NFT track will further increase its weight in the web3 industry is worth looking forward to.

5. Latest financing situation of the project

6. Post-investment dynamics

1）The Beacon - GameFi

The Trilight Festival hosted by The Beacon officially begins on December 18th!

The specific activities are as follows:

• Time: 19:00 on December 18 to 19:00 on December 25
• Unlock new dungeons every day for the first four days
• Earn event raffle tickets by completing dungeons
• Win Moonlight Pets, Founding Characters and Golden Tickets!

For more details, please follow The Beacon Discord community:

2）Decent Land - Infra

• MEM has been integrated with Akash, HackerNoon, Akord, ShardDog
• MEM’s permissionless test network and command line interface have been launched, attracting more than 100 developers to deploy on MEM
• Released a new architecture model that replaces zk and Optimistic Rollups, using Arweave technology

3）Puffverse - Social

Puffverse launches #Christmas Parade, a special Christmas event where you can unlock more content and NPCs by lighting up the Christmas tree. Details to participate:

4）Phaver & Mocaverse - Social & NFT

Phaver and Mocaverse jointly launched a Christmas event, L2-L4 users can Mocalize MocaverseNFT in Phaver

step:

1: Get/connect Moca ID in Cred Dashboard

2: Link it to your profile

Reward: 70 Domain Points + 200 additional Phaver Points, plus daily Cred and Points!