中信证券:伊朗局势仍在快速变化,预计难以一次性按最终情景推测并演绎

Odaily星球日报讯 中信证券研报表示,当地时间 2 月 28 日,伊朗局势进入了军事冲突爆发阶段。伊朗局势仍在快速变化,中信证券预计难以一次性按最终情景推测并演绎,更可能跟随重要信号持续波动,中信证券认为美军军事调动、伊朗政局变化、冲突外溢范围三个关键信号是否出现潜在变化,将决定全球市场影响为 2025 年 6 月“十二日战争”的放大版,还是走向更极端的情景。为对市场潜在影响提供参考,中信证券复盘了 1970 年以来中东地区八场重大冲突的市场影响,可总结为以下规律:避险资产黄金较美元更优,油价长期仍看供需,美股表现与美国军事介入程度和战局走势直接相关,而对中国资产并无显著影响。(金十)

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