美国政府停摆博弈凸显预测市场“定义精度”问题,Polymarket 和 Kalshi 因定义差异出现分歧

ChainCatcher 消息,据 CoinDesk 报道,随着美国国会未能完成拨款法案的全部立法程序,美国政府预计将于美东时间周六起进入短期、部分停摆状态,但该事件也凸显出预测市场在合约“定义精度”问题,Polymarket 与 Kalshi 上关于“美国政府是否停摆”的预测合约因触发条件定义不同而出现差异,Polymarket 上相关合约显示停摆概率约 88%,Kalshi 类似合约概率则高达约 93%,原因可能是部分合约将是否由美国人事管理局( OPM )正式宣布停摆作为结算依据,即便只是部分停摆也视为成立,此次事件仍凸显预测市场在宏观事件中对合约触发条件、官方确认主体与时间节点高度敏感,合约细节本身已成为影响赔率的重要因素。

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