Is Bitcoin aiming for $98,000? Liquidity signals negate the cycle top theory, and BTC's trend shows new divergence

January 19 News, regarding whether Bitcoin has approached the peak of this cycle, market divergence is widening. Although some long-term models suggest that Bitcoin’s cycle may reach a high point in early 2026, the latest liquidity data and capital structure indicate different signals, showing that BTC’s upward momentum has not yet been exhausted.

From a macro perspective, there are no signs of a significant tightening of global liquidity at present. On the contrary, the global liquidity index remains high in this cycle, and the funding environment continues to be accommodative. This provides important support for risk assets including Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin’s price movements are often more influenced by liquidity changes rather than strictly following fixed time cycles.

This also means that the logic of “the cycle must top out” is being challenged by reality. Rather than capital withdrawing from risk markets, it is more about reallocation of capital among different risk assets.

On-chain structure also confirms this judgment. According to realized prices segmented by UTXO age, market risk is being redistributed. Short-term holders (STH) are currently in overall profit, with an average cost significantly below the spot price near ,500 USD, reducing the likelihood of short-term selling pressure and panic selling.

In contrast, medium-term holders face more pressure. Investors holding for 3–6 months and 6–12 months are still in unrealized loss zones, but on-chain data shows that this group has not experienced large-scale capitulation selling, but instead continues to digest paper losses, providing a time window for further price recovery.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is building momentum within a key zone. So far, BTC has rebounded after gaining strong support in the 91,000–92,000 USD demand zone and is stabilizing around 95,000 USD. This level is accompanied by noticeable volume accumulation, gradually transforming into an important downside buffer zone.

Looking above, the 97,000 to 98,000 USD range remains a short-term strong resistance zone, with multiple attempts to break higher failing. Momentum indicators show the Relative Strength Index staying above 60, and the MACD remains positive. Although upward momentum has slowed, there are no signs of trend reversal.

As long as the 95,000 USD level holds, market expectations for Bitcoin to rise to 98,000 USD or higher have not diminished. Liquidity remains, selling pressure is manageable, and the structure is intact, making BTC currently more about accumulating strength for the next phase rather than entering the end of the cycle.