Bitcoin’s ($BTC) current market structure signals weakness as the on-chain data displays bearish pressure. Specifically, Bitcoin’s sentiment index has dropped to the risk-off territory at 40%. As per the data from Axel Adler Jr., a popular crypto analyst, the short-term Bitcoin ($BTC) holders are underwater, while the realized price shows resistance ranges across diverse cohorts. As a result, this plunge in price action and sentiment indicates rising selling pressure, as usually happens before a market bounce.
☕️Adler AM: Short-Term Holders Underwater, Sentiment Confirms Market WeaknessSentiment and on-chain structure are synchronously pointing to market weakness. Short-term holders are underwater, and all key nearby support levels have turned into resistance.👇… pic.twitter.com/ncKObKRzA9
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) December 23, 2025
Bitcoin Sentiment Index Dips to 40%, Confirming Risk-Off Mode
Based on the on-chain data, the sentiment index of Bitcoin has seen a noteworthy slump to 40%. This signifies a sheer decrease from optimism to a considerably risk-off range. The respective metric aggregates the factors like volume delta, open interest, taker volume, and price to gauge wider market psychology. Particularly, following the peak in December’s early days, the index entered a sustained correction.
Apart from that, the 30-day simple moving average also presents a decline, confirming a noteworthy change in short-term outlook. Hence, after a failed attempt for the Santa rally, the sentiment plunged to 40% on the 22nd of December, highlighting a broader risk-off mode. At the moment, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is hovering around $87,400, below all major short-term holder realized price spots.
Market Recovery Requires $90K Rebound and Consolidation
According to Axel Adler Jr., the present price level below the STH Realized Price indicates that most of the short-term $BTC holders are in losses. In line with the historical data, this creates massive selling pressure amid price bounces toward key breakeven levels. Keeping this in view, a shift to a profitable area needs a rebound and subsequent consolidation above the $90K spot.
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