Cardano (ADA) price prediction: The chances of ETF approval have plummeted, and the downward target is directly aimed at $0.5?

Affected by the Fed's hawkish interest rate cuts, the price of Cardano (ADA) fell to $0.6065 on October 30, a cumulative drop of 40% from the August peak. On the technical chart, ADA has formed a “Death Cross” pattern indicating a downward trend, with the 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA. Meanwhile, the approval chances for the Cardano ETF have sharply decreased from 96% in September to the current 68%. Analysts predict that the price of Cardano may fall another 20%, with the next target support level at $0.50.

Price plummets 40%: Technical indicators emit strong bearish signals

Cardano's price has recently suffered a severe blow, with a 40% fall and a strong bearish technical pattern formed on the chart, indicating that there may be further losses.

• Key support level broken: ADA price has fallen below the key support level of 0.6858 USD, which is its low point in August.
• “Death Cross” Confirms Downtrend: The daily chart shows that ADA has formed a “Death Cross” pattern, where the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crosses below the 200-day EMA. Historical experience indicates that the previous Death Cross led to a double-digit percentage fall in the token's price.
• Multiple Bearish Patterns: In addition to the Death Cross, the chart also shows the typically downward signaling “Head-and-Shoulders” (Head-and-Shoulders) pattern, as well as a “Bearish Flag” pattern.
• Analyst Target: ADA is currently trading below the Supertrend indicator and is nearing the ultimate Murrey Math Lines support level. Analysts expect the Cardano price may fall to 0.50 USD in 2025, a level that matches the extreme oversold zone from July.

Institutional Interest Weakens: Cardano ETF Approval Odds Plummet

In stark contrast to XRP and Solana and other altcoins that have received more than 9 ETF applications, despite Cardano having a market capitalization of $24 billion, currently only Grayscale has submitted the only ETF application.

• The probability of ETF approval has plummeted: Data from Polymarket shows that the approval probability of Cardano ETF has significantly decreased from 96% in September to the current 68%, reflecting a sharp reversal in market sentiment.
• Lack of Supporting Products: As Solana and Hedera ETF products start trading this week, Cardano still lacks approved investment tools.
• Insufficient ecosystem activity: The main reason issuers avoid applying for a Cardano ETF is insufficient ecosystem activity. The Cardano network's total locked value (TVL) is less than 300 million USD, far below competitors like Solana, BSC, and Ethereum. Limited DeFi activity reduces its appeal to institutional investors.

Technical Rebound and Risk Warning: The Key Role of 0.6858 USD

Despite the current market signals strongly indicating a fall, there is still a possibility of a reversal for Cardano.

• Key reversal level: If the price can break through the 0.6858 USD resistance level, it will invalidate the bearish forecast and reignite bullish confidence. The next upward target will be 0.9765 USD.
• Long-term Risk: Market participants are closely monitoring the key level of 0.6858 USD. If the price of Cardano continues to fall below 0.50 USD, it will create a new multi-month low.

Conclusion

The sharp correction in Cardano prices and the formation of a death cross, along with the sharp decline in the ETF approval chances, have sounded the alarm for the ADA community. This dual pressure stems from both the weakening of technical indicators and exposes the structural issue of Cardano's insufficient institutional appeal compared to its competitors. For ADA investors, it is crucial to be wary of the risk of further dipping below the 0.50 USD support level in the short term, while also keeping an eye on the latest developments regarding the Grayscale ETF and whether the Cardano ecosystem can catch up in terms of DeFi activity.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.