Ripple to unlock 1 billion XRP on October 1; Here’s what’s next?

Ripple’s monthly escrow schedule is set to release 1 billion XRP on October 1, continuing the company’s long-running mechanism to manage the token’s circulating supply.

The 1 billion XRP unlock, part of an escrow system established in 2017, often draws attention given its scale relative to the total 100 billion supply

While the smart contract releases tokens on the first day of each month, Ripple typically sells only a fraction for operations and relocks the rest.

The event can influence short-term liquidity and price, as sell-offs add market pressure and traders often position around unlocks. However, Ripple’s practice of returning large portions to escrow usually softens the actual supply impact.

It’s worth noting that this year, Ripple’s escrow activity has shown irregularities such as delayed or split tranches. However, the blockchain firm clarified that the schedule remains intact, with delays stemming from transaction submission mechanics rather than contract changes.

Notably, October’s unlocks are of interest considering it coincides with regulatory and institutional developments, including the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) later in the month

If demand strengthens, the release may have little effect; if sentiment stays weak, added supply could weigh on prices. Key signals to watch will be how much XRP is sold versus re-escrowed and whether tokens reach exchanges. Historically, large portions have been returned, easing market impact.

XRP price analysis

The timing also comes as XRP struggles to reclaim the $3 resistance zone. As of press time, the token was trading at $2.87, up about 1.6% in the past 24 hours but down 5.5% on the week.

XRP seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold**XRP seven-day price chart. Source: FinboldNotably, XRP is sitting just below its 50-day SMA of $3.01 but remains comfortably above the 200-day SMA of $2.56. This positioning suggests the asset is still in a broader uptrend despite short-term weakness, with the long-term moving average continuing to act as support.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 49.46, placing XRP in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold.

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