The "September Curse" in the crypto market may be broken: Analysts are optimistic about the performance of LINK and other alts in Q4.

As the third quarter comes to a close, the altcoin market is facing turbulence. However, analyst Michael Van De Poppe believes that the historical "September Curse" (usually the weakest month for Bitcoin and alts) may not repeat itself this year. He points out that with the upcoming Fed interest rate cuts and improving market sentiment, altcoins are expected to see a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, potentially even outperforming Bitcoin.

(Source: TradingView)

Macroeconomics and Token Unlocking: Two Key Catalysts

Michael Van De Poppe believes that this cycle is different from previous ones, mainly due to two important macroeconomic and market dynamics:

• Fed interest rate cut expectations: The market generally anticipates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement its first interest rate cut of the year at the September meeting, lowering the rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. This move will help ease financial conditions and increase market liquidity, thereby supporting risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. For alts, this could trigger a new influx of funds seeking growth opportunities.
• Impact of token unlocks diminishes: Although nearly $10 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked in September, analysts point out that large unlocks are usually settled through over-the-counter (OTC) contracts, which makes the actual selling pressure negligible. However, he warns investors that tokens without unlock schedules may perform better than those with unlocks.

Key Focus Areas: DeFi and DePIN Leading the Recovery

In terms of specific investment directions, Van De Poppe advises investors to focus on the following three specific areas:

• DeFi (Decentralized Finance)
• DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network)
• Ethereum ecosystem

He views Chainlink (LINK) as one of the pioneers of this round of rebound. According to the latest data, the price of LINK is currently hovering around 23 dollars. Although there are slight fluctuations in the short term, its performance around 23.40 dollars is crucial. If it can successfully convert this resistance level into support and gain new buying momentum, LINK is expected to launch an attack towards the higher resistance level of 25.81 dollars.

Conclusion

Despite historical data pointing to a cautious September, various factors are converging, such as the Fed's potential rate cuts and a rebound in market confidence, indicating that the traditional altcoin trend may be undergoing a shift. The next few weeks will be crucial, as market performance will determine whether the new cycle can successfully break old patterns and lay the groundwork for a bull market in the crypto space before the end of the year.