On August 29, $5 billion in ETH options will expire! Can Ethereum break through the $5,000 mark?

On August 29, a $5 billion Ethereum (ETH) monthly options expiration is set to take place, which could be a key event driving ETH to break above $5,000 in the near term. Over the past 30 days, ETH has risen 22%, with bullish investors holding the advantage, while short positions have nearly been rendered ineffective above the $4,000 defense line.

ETH Price Background and Market Position

(Source: CoinTelegraph)

Market capitalization: $557 billion, has entered the top 30 largest assets by trading volume globally, surpassing Mastercard (MA) and ExxonMobil (XOM).

Market Correlation: The 40-day correlation between ETH and the S&P 500 index exceeds 80%, indicating a high degree of synchronization in their trends with the U.S. stock market.

Focus: Investors are closely watching NVIDIA's dynamics, as the performance of the AI industry may become an indirect driving force for ETH.

Options Market Structure: Bullish Advantage is Obvious

Open Interest (OI):

Bullish options: 2.75 billion USD

Put options: $2.25 billion

bullish positions up by 22%

Key Observation:

1. Only 6% of the put options are set at $4,600 or higher, which means there is almost no defense for short positions at high levels.

2. 71% of bullish options are set at $4,600 or lower, particularly concentrated in the $4,400 to $4,500 range.

Ethereum's Four Major Price Scenarios and Potential Profits

Interpretation: Even if ETH falls back to $4,400, bulls may still reap significant profits during this expiration; if it breaks through $4,850, the potential profit will reach $1.8 billion.

Conditions to Break 5,000 USD

Technical Analysis: Bulls have regained control, while shorts lack defensive positions at high levels.

Fundamentals: If global economic data shows robust growth, it will enhance market risk appetite.

Market sentiment: Investors' expectations for the combination of AI and blockchain may become a soft catalyst for pushing ETH higher.

Risk and variables

Macroeconomic pressures: If global economic data is poor or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may suppress ETH prices.

U.S. stock volatility: ETH is highly correlated with the S&P 500. If U.S. stocks pull back, ETH may face pressure as well.

Short-term selling pressure: After expiration, some bulls may choose to take profits, causing price fluctuations in the short term.

Conclusion

The expiration of the $5 billion ETH options on August 29 may become a key point for driving Ethereum to challenge $5,000.

Bulls have almost no opponents at high positions, and both the technical and market structures are favorable for an upward attack. However, whether it can ultimately break through still depends on the alignment of global economic sentiment.