Bitcoin: The Rise Continues – 3 Main Reasons Worth the Optimistic Outlook

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to mark a brilliant successful year. After increasing by 154% in 2023 and an additional 119% in 2024, the world's largest cryptocurrency has now risen by another 27% in just over the first half of 2025 as of 24/7(. Investors who once doubted Bitcoin now find it hard to ignore its potential and role in a long term investment portfolio. However, with the current price no longer far from the historical peak of $123,091.61 set on July 14, concerns about a short-term correction are entirely reasonable – especially as the "bullish" sentiment spreads among investors. Nevertheless, my outlook remains optimistic. Here are three main reasons why I believe Bitcoin's upward momentum has not yet ended.

1. Favorable Macroeconomic Context The last time the Federal Reserve )Fed( cut the federal funds rate was in December of last year. Since then, due to fluctuations in global trade and inflation remaining above the long term target of 2%, the Fed has temporarily kept the interest rate at the highest level in the past 18 years. Nevertheless, the stock market has still performed very well, reflecting expectations that loose monetary policy will return soon. Many experts, including Goldman Sachs, predict that the Fed's benchmark interest rate will drop to around 3% by mid-2026 – significantly lower than the current level of 4.33%. With such prospects, investors tend to shift capital towards riskier assets, including Bitcoin, to seek better returns compared to traditional savings channels. Additionally, economic stimulus policies will boost positive sentiment and help increase capital flow into speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
2. Post Halving Cycle About every four years, Bitcoin will undergo an event called "halving", meaning the reward for miners) when confirming transactions will be halved. This is part of a pre-programmed mechanism in the source code of Bitcoin, aimed at controlling the rate of supply increase. History has shown that Bitcoin's price cycles often revolve around halving events. The previous halvings in July 2016 and May 2020 were both followed by significant price increases, with new peaks appearing about 18 months later. With the latest halving event taking place in April 2024, many people expect a new peak to emerge around October of this year. Although no cycle is exactly the same – due to factors such as policy fluctuations, market acceptance levels, or legal regulations – this time there are some new favorable points: the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETF funds, the participation of Bitcoin custodial companies in treasury, and an increasingly clear legal environment.
3. Scarcity – The Long Term Shaping Factor Instead of just focusing on short-term price fluctuations, investors should have a longer-term perspective – from 5 to 10 years – to accurately assess the true potential of Bitcoin. The key factor that creates the value of Bitcoin is its absolute scarcity. There will only be a maximum of 21 million BTC created – this number is immutable and is defined in the software of the system. After the recent halving event, the rate of Bitcoin supply increase per year is now lower than that of gold, making BTC an asset that is even scarcer than gold. As more and more capital flows into assets that cannot be inflated or devalued, Bitcoin emerges as a superior choice in the long term investment portfolio of individuals and organizations. This could drive the price of Bitcoin to new heights in the future. Conclusion Although Bitcoin has experienced a strong price increase in recent years, the fundamental macro factors, halving cycles, and scarcity remain the main drivers that reinforce confidence in the continuation of the upward trend. Given the current context, maintaining a positive outlook and preparing for long term opportunities with Bitcoin is entirely reasonable.