The next prospect for Bitcoin: Is BTC heading towards the milestone of $93,000 or $107,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) is still struggling in its journey to conquer the historical peak (ATH), igniting a wave of caution spreading across the derivatives market. And now, the first signs of instability have begun to emerge.

The futures market leans towards a bearish trend

According to analysis from Axel Adler – an expert from the data platform CryptoQuant, the Futures Market Power index of Bitcoin has officially shifted to the negative zone, currently hovering around the -93,000 mark. This figure indicates that the futures market is slightly leaning towards the bears, although the level is not too severe.

Source: CryptoQuantIn this context, the slight downward trend does not necessarily reflect pessimism, but rather indicates that investors still expect Bitcoin to surpass the historical peak (ATH). The current adjustment is viewed as a strategic pullback, rather than a sign of a real downturn.

In fact, compared to previous periods of strong volatility – such as the level of -150,000 in January 2024 or even -450,000 in January 2025 – this drop is quite modest. In previous cycles, when this index fluctuated between -50,000 and -150,000, the market only adjusted slightly by 5–10% before recovering.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could very well retreat to the $93,000–$98,000 range to consolidate its upward momentum.

However, it is noteworthy that the market has not yet experienced a widespread sell-off – a sign that this may only be a temporary pause in a long-term upward trend, rather than a real "crash."

The market still maintains an upward trend

Although the Futures Market Power index of Bitcoin has shifted to a negative zone, the overall market picture still has many bright spots. First of all, the Futures Basis index of Bitcoin remains positive on most major exchanges, reflecting a clear bullish bias. This shows that traders are willing to pay higher fees to hold long positions – a testament to the prevailing bullish expectations.

Source: CoinalyzeThis optimistic sentiment is further reinforced by the Funding Rate index, which has returned to positive territory and has remained stable for the past 10 days, following a brief decline. When a positive Funding Rate is accompanied by a strong Futures Basis, it is often a clear signal that investors are highly optimistic about the potential for a significant price increase in the near future.

In addition, the open contract (OI) – representing the total value of outstanding derivative contracts – remained stable around 33 billion USD throughout the past week.

Source: CryptoQuantThis indicates that the market has not recorded a significant increase in new positions, whether in the buying or selling direction. If open contracts surge during a price correction, it would be a sign that the bears are strengthening their positions. However, that scenario has not yet occurred.

Source: CryptoQuant## Conclusion