Could the U.S. ignite a civil war over Trump's coercive crackdown on illegal immigration? The Japanese media see it this way

Recently, the Japanese media has been widely concerned about the bloody clashes in Los Angeles over the ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) sweep of illegal immigrants. Several political observers have conducted in-depth analysis of President Trump’s heavy-handed approach. Trump’s use of national militias in Los Angeles to try to quell the protests against ICE, and the addition of thousands of troops in succession, exacerbating the division of views on illegal immigration in American society, may this series of military repression actions turn into the fuse of the American Civil War? The following is a quote from the Japanese media ABEMA Prime talk show.

A crackdown on illegal immigration has transformed into a military standoff.

Japanese media pointed out that Trump’s tough policies on illegal immigration shake American society. Trump announced the deployment of 2,000 National Guards to Los Angeles, and an additional 700 new recruits. The actions ordered by Trump are in direct conflict with California Governor Newsom, who stated that the deployment of federal troops without state government permission is illegal. This is not only an immigration issue but also a struggle between the federal government and local governments.

Guests on the program stated that although Americans pay less attention to the news, large-scale protests have begun to emerge across the country since Monday. There is a serious divide regarding Trump’s approach to handling illegal immigration, with some viewpoints arguing that “illegal is illegal and should be deported,” while others point out that law enforcement is too harsh, even affecting families with no criminal records, such as migrant workers in restaurants.

The division of public opinion and institutional contradictions

There are currently about 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, many of whom have paid taxes for many years and started families, and about 7% of new immigrant families have members of citizenship. In Democratic states (such as California and the Northeast), immigrant inclusion is widespread, while the Southern and Central regions, where the Republicans are stronger, are tougher. However, these conservative areas are also highly dependent on illegal immigrants for agricultural and low-level labor.

The United States has adopted “amnesty-style” immigration policies several times in its history, legalizing some illegal immigrants, but Trump’s immigration policies and military deployments reflect a conservative revolution aimed at reshaping order that is unfolding.

What is Trump’s intention? To fulfill campaign promises or to provoke?

As early as 2016, Trump emphasized the thesis of “maintaining stability by military”. He believes that the United States excessively spends military power overseas (such as South Korea and Japan), and the United States should strengthen the maintenance of domestic order. The Los Angeles crackdown on illegal immigrants is to some extent a fulfillment of campaign promises, and some commentators even pointed out that his move is intended to undermine the prestige of California Democratic Governor Newsom and weaken his potential to run for president on behalf of the Democratic Party in 2028.

This strategy of militarizing and politicizing immigration issues is likely to further exacerbate social divisions. Especially in suburban and agricultural areas of California, even those opposed to immigration heavily rely on its labor, creating internal contradictions that make the situation even more fragile.

Dissatisfaction among the American public with Biden and the Democratic Party’s immigration policies is rising.

The Japanese media delved into the mentality of some Americans who support Trump’s near-violent fight against illegal immigrants. Among this group of people, there are many college-educated intellectuals, but because of the Democratic Party’s excessive laxity of illegal immigrants, a large number of illegal immigrants have taken away jobs, and forced to turn to service or labor jobs, they feel eliminated by American society, they are generally dissatisfied with the policies under the Democratic Party, they believe that the rights they deserve as Americans are denied, and the backlog of anger over the status quo has gradually become the core driving force supporting Trump. If this sentiment is deliberately manipulated by politicians, it is likely to become a fuel for social unrest.

The possibility of a civil war breaking out in the United States?

If the “civil war” is defined as extreme social antagonism and rising power conflicts between federal and local governments, then the current situation in the United States does have potential conditions. When illegal immigration policies, which were originally at the level of institutional debate, turn into bloody struggles in the streets, the crisis of civil war is no longer just a theoretical hypothesis, but part of the real threat.

Trump’s immigration policy has far exceeded immigration itself; it touches the core of American national identity: who is a “real American”? Who is qualified to have governance and citizenship in this country? When such questions become the axis of political mobilization, it is not just the parties that are torn apart, but the entire nation.

Could the U.S. trigger a civil war due to Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration? This is how Japanese media sees it. Originally published on Chain News ABMedia.