QCP: Bitcoin lacks the narrative to drive the next round of rise, signs of weakness are emerging.

Gate News bot, QCP pointed out in its latest market analysis that as summer approaches, BTC prices fluctuate in a narrow range, and implied volatility continues to be under pressure. While implied volatility is at a one-year low, actual volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years suggests that front-end volatility tends to slip further in July. We also saw this pattern in the same period last year, when 1-month ATM volatility plummeted from 80% in March to 40% in July, coinciding with BTC’s repeated failures to break through the $70,000 mark.

A fall below $100,000 or a breakthrough above $110,000 could rekindle broader market interest, but we currently believe there are no obvious catalysts to drive this trend in the short term. Recent macro news has triggered an instinctive reaction in the market, but these reactions are largely viewed as noise and dissipate quickly, insufficient to trigger a directional breakout.

Even though the employment report released last Friday exceeded expectations, U.S. stock markets rose and gold was sold off, Bitcoin still has not shown significant fluctuations, struggling against the tide in the absence of clear macro support. Weak signs are emerging due to the lack of a compelling narrative to drive the next round of increases. The open interest in perpetual contracts is weakening, and the inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs has also begun to decrease.

The options capital flow over the past week reflects this indecisive situation. We have seen that the upward trend from July has clearly continued into September, and the scale is quite considerable, indicating that investors are further pushing back their bullish timelines.