Big Bet on Bitcoin 130,000 USD: Shark Investor Places Bet for Q3

QCP Capital, a trading firm based in Singapore, has indicated that the options market is sending a clear signal: large investors are quietly positioning for a price breakout above $130,000 by the end of Q3, even as the spot price of Bitcoin remains around $105,000. The $130,000 Bitcoin bet is heating up. In a note sent to clients on Wednesday, the company emphasized that "a surprising increase in job numbers" has elevated risk appetite across equities, pushing the S&P 500 toward the psychological milestone of 6,000. "A stable NFP will reinforce the Fed's narrative of a recovering labor market, bolstering expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged," QCP wrote, adding that end Bitcoin volatility has "slipped below 40 vol" as traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the payroll announcement on Friday. Although the surface is calm, the options market tells a more vivid story. "Buy orders of $130,000 in September were removed at 47 vol," QCP observed, pointing out that "top interest groups are aiming for Q3." With the one-month volatility term structure now flatter than at any time since May, opportunity funds have found that buying long vega while selling short gamma is cost-effective. The momentum reflects a broader decline in stock volatility — the VIX is tapping its lowest level in three months — and makes Bitcoin's implied curve look "completely normalized," QCP notes, with the skew indicating "little directional confidence" in the near term. That healthy context may not last. The working desk warns that conflicts over tariffs and the so-called "Great Beautiful Bill" from Washington could disrupt macro data just as the story about the U.S. debt ceiling re-emerges in the headlines. "Without a clear catalyst, BTC is unlikely to break out of its current range," the note states, but Q3 "could prove to be more challenging" as financial risks and trade tensions "bring about potential headline volatility." China has shown initial signs of tension: the trading volume of 10-year and 30-year Chinese government bond futures has fallen to its lowest level since February, a fact that QCP attributes to "broader risk-averse sentiment and sidelined positioning." Meanwhile, the market is awaiting any developments in the expected dialogue between Xi and Trump - an event that could shift sentiment regarding tariffs. However, currently, Bitcoin is still being constrained. The spot has tightly held the price level of $105,000 for five consecutive sessions, with low open interest and actual volatility compressed into an annual range in the mid-teenage years—conditions traditionally preceding a strong expansion. Whether that expansion resolves at a higher or lower level depends on the very catalysts that traders are preparing for: payroll data, central bank rhetoric, and announcements about tariffs have dominated the headlines early in the year. However, the willingness of sophisticated desks to pay for the price hike in September is hard to ignore. A group of large prints during the $130,000 execution, made at implied vols about seven points higher than the current curve, suggests that at least some investors expect Bitcoin to test new highs before the end of September. QCP did not fully confirm the transaction but emphasized the asymmetry: "With the vols crushed and deflected, the cost of owning the peak gamma rarely looks so attractive," the company wrote. That calculation—cheap options in a macro context that can be volatile—explains the growing disparity between spot stagnation and optimism about options. If the payroll report is unfavorable, the Fed's pivot story may flare up again; if trade negotiations worsen, the appeal of digital gold Bitcoin may re-emerge. Both paths nurture volatility, and volatility is exactly what long-term vega buyers are counting on.