Memories beyond gold, games beyond Bit.

Author: lbq

Bitcoin is a higher-dimensional setting; it is a test for the humans who set up this "program" regarding the humans within this "program." Over a long period, there may not be many who can truly withstand this test.

In the first stage, the movement of Bitcoin was almost uncorrelated with traditional financial markets;

In the second stage, it began to be highly correlated with mainstream financial markets, gradually showing consistency with the dollar system.

In the third stage, Bitcoin will decouple again, with its correlation to the traditional world approaching zero.

Before the Spring Festival, I had a serious discussion with my father about this matter. I advised him to sell all the gold he had and convert it into Bitcoin. He did not object, because I firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually surpass the market value of gold in the future. At that time, the market value of gold was about 20 trillion dollars. Assuming the total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million coins (including those that are permanently lost and dormant), then when the market value of gold grows to over 30 trillion dollars, Bitcoin reaching 1 million dollars per coin is merely a matter of time—this does not even take into account the factors of dollar depreciation and the continuous increase in gold production.

Although the increase in Bitcoin was continuing to expand while writing this article, it did not outperform gold in the first quarter. However, my judgment remains unchanged. Currently, Bitcoin is still in the second phase, and its strong binding with the USD system continues, so there is no need to rush. It is a "Trojan horse" given to the USD system. Over time, Bitcoin's "self-financial" attribute will, like past surges and crashes, suddenly and violently tear apart the original pricing system of the traditional financial world.

At the beginning of 2018, I envisioned an extreme scenario: what would happen if all governments around the world unanimously banned the exchange between Bitcoin and fiat currency? At that time, mainland China had already prohibited the fiat transactions between the renminbi and digital currencies. At its peak, the renminbi trading market accounted for more than 90% of the global Bitcoin trading volume. The mining market, which was completely banned in 2021, still accounted for more than 50% of the global market after being hit in 2017.

The policies of these national institutions will have a significant short-term impact on price volatility (this has been the case for a while, just the subject has changed). However, the matter of 'decoupling from the RMB' will inevitably also happen to the US dollar in the future. One reason is the lack of understanding of the situation, leading to a relatively crude governance solution, directly attempting to sever limbs to survive. Another reason is the desire for conservative treatment, but there is uncertainty as to whether this will infiltrate like cancer cells, initially covertly permeating and slowly becoming part of the body (it is also a part of the body) before proceeding to invasive dissemination. Ironically, regardless of the form, this is an inevitable outcome, there is no choice.

Reflections from 2018

At first, Bitcoin was largely independent of the trends in the traditional financial market due to its small scale. This state was like "the mountain is not a mountain, the water is not water." However, over time, especially influenced by traditional secular concepts, this "leaderless currency" gradually became tainted. This tendency became even more apparent after the bull market triggered by the pandemic in 2020. Many adherents of decentralization even considered it a great shame - as if they had been co-opted. But I believe that was just a phase of weakness.

This state has lasted for a long time. The United States has gone through two elections and a series of policy changes. Many early OGs have gradually lost confidence, not to mention those newcomers who have just entered the scene. However, this structure is slowly coming to an end.

In the past couple of days, the movement of Bitcoin has gradually started to detach from the influence of the Nasdaq. Although at present, Bitcoin has not completely escaped the second phase and remains strongly correlated with the US dollar. However, the recent short-term price increase of Bitcoin is partly due to expectations of a devaluation policy for the dollar during Trump's administration; on the other hand, it also stems from the reversal of tariff policies.

In a sense, this short-term trend of being "independent of the Nasdaq" still stems from the strength and weakness of the dollar. However, it can be seen that Bitcoin is slowly transitioning into the third phase.

As for the final result, we might as well "take a long view of things" and wait for that certainty that has already been "predicted:"

——Bitcoin is like a game created by a higher-dimensional life form. It plays with humanity using Bitcoin. In the endgame of this game, there won't actually be too many people who truly own Bitcoin.