BTC breaks through 90,000 dollars, is it a bull trap or a breakout?

Source: Liu Jiao Chain

In the past few days, the BTC has broken the calm sideways movement at 84.5k, causing the market to suddenly shift from bearish to bullish. Many people believe that this strong rally breaking through 90,000 dollars is a break from the downward trend over the past three months.

The macroeconomists pulled out the global M2 liquidity chart that they mention every day again, pointing at the graph and saying, look, look, the trends of BTC and M2 macro liquidity can't be said to be very close; they are simply identical.

However, if you look closely, you will still see some minor divergence in certain areas. That's okay, you can move the data back and forth to adjust it to a more seamless appearance.

Anyway, tracking the horse by its picture is always comforting. Either we have already passed the local bottom and started to rebound; or we may very likely witness another retracement in early May, followed by a rapid rise?

The cycle method, based on the 4-year halving cycle, suggests that we have now reached the time to start the bull market peak.

If the cow's top is at the peak of Mount Tai, then have we just arrived at the Zhongtian Gate?

The technical graphics school moved out of the ancestral secret recipe wyckoff accumulation mode, and pointed out that the half-year accumulation period at the end of 2022, and the two quarters after breaking through the previous high in March 2024 are the second accumulation period, and the current pullback in April 2025 is a backtest of the support level.

However, what the teaching chain does not understand is why, during the bullish trend of 2023, there were multiple tests of support, but in the bullish trend of 2025, it only requires one test before it can surge up?

For the future, it is all just imagination.

If you can do mental calculations with the Kelly formula f = p - q / b, it becomes easy to understand a principle: the winning probability (p) determines the position size. No matter how high the odds (b) are, they are merely a supporting role that creates a larger stage for the winning probability.

For various operations that gamble on probabilities with dreams of getting rich, the extremely low win rate determines that the best strategy is actually not to participate and to stay far away.

It's like every time I see someone post about earning tens of millions with just a few U in capital on the blockchain, I can only smile helplessly. Winning a thousand times, what are the odds? Probably not even that.

Ten thousand multiplied by ten thousand is just a return to one. There is definitely no ten thousand because some people are definitely making a profit by siphoning off funds. Thus, it is a one-way road towards zero.

Back to BTC.

If you really keep accounts seriously, why not test how much you would earn when BTC = 200,000 dollars, and how much you would lose when BTC = 50,000 dollars. It's just a matter of the probability of doubling and halving starting from 100,000 dollars.

And what is the winning rate of 200,000 dollars in this round? Every person has their own interpretation of Hamlet.

If you feel that the winning rate is only 80%, and the odds are only double, then the amount to bet calculated by Kelly would only be 8 - 2/2 = 70% of the bankroll.