澳新银行:即使关税加剧通胀,美联储也可能会进一步降息

GoldenOctober2024
TRUMP-2,19%
G30,39%

金十数据2月28日讯,特朗普政府已确认,对来自墨西哥、加拿大的进口商品征收的关税将于3月4日生效,互惠关税定于4月2日生效。澳新银行G3经济主管Brian Martin表示,如果关税的影响在本日历年剩余时间内保持不变,可能会使美国核心PCE通胀率保持在2.6%-2.9%左右,而关税前估计为2.4%。他补充说,这些估计没有考虑可能的第二轮影响或对需求的疲软进行抵消。尽管如此,Martin表示,美联储可能会保持耐心,对一次性的价格上涨予以关注。澳新银行坚持认为,美联储将在本周期内再降息75个基点,并在2025年下半年恢复降息。

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