特朗普向伊朗发出48小时通牒,原油波动率OVX升至93

Gate News消息,3月29日,"1011内幕巨鲸"代理人Garrett Jin在X平台发文表示,特朗普已向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒,要求全面恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行,局势明显升级。其总结这一举动带来三方面关键影响:一是外交缓冲被打破,此前伊朗与日本就船只逐一通行的低调协商路径面临终结;二是冲突性质升级,若打击扩大至电力等民用基础设施,将强化伊朗立场并提高长期战争可能性;三是油市波动飙升、市场错配加剧,原油波动率OVX升至93,而芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX约为24,二者比值接近4倍,显示油市风险远超股市定价。整体来看,油价与市场波动率持续上行,冲突持续时间预期延长。

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