特朗普宣布缓和与伊朗冲突后比特币短时上涨4%,期货溢价仅2%低于中性区间

BTC3,41%

Gate News 消息,3 月 24 日,特朗普宣布暂时缓和与伊朗冲突并寻求谈判后,比特币短时上涨 4%,WTI 原油价格随即下跌 14% 至每桶 85 美元,标普 500 指数上涨 3%。

期货市场方面,比特币 2 个月期货年化溢价周一报 2%,低于中性状态下通常对应较长结算周期的 4% 至 8% 区间。这一状态在过去一个月持续存在,即便此前价格曾短暂反弹至 76,000 美元附近亦未改变。

期权市场方面,某衍生品交易平台 4 月 24 日到期的 80,000 美元看涨期权报 0.017 BTC(约 1,207 美元),在 31 天到期、48% 隐含波动率的条件下,市场对比特币在此期间涨至 80,000 美元的概率定价为 20%。

美联储暂停降息,油价在回落至 75 美元或以下之前,市场对 68,000 美元支撑位信心不足。

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