金价意外下跌2%逼近4400美元,伊朗战争与石油危机冲击避险逻辑

Gate News 消息,3 月 23 日,金价再度下跌2%,接近每盎司4400美元,为自2025年底以来最低水平。过去三周的抛售几乎抹去了2026年初金价的全部涨幅,市场避险逻辑被严重扰动。

黄金通常被视为避险资产,但这次伊朗战争伴随石油危机,改变了金价走势。原油价格飙升加剧全球通胀,使各国央行维持利率不变甚至考虑加息。债券收益率上升削弱了零收益黄金的吸引力,同时美元走强增加了非美买家购金成本,进一步压制需求。

投机动能不足也是下跌的重要因素。黄金在2025年已大幅上涨64%,并在今年1月突破5000美元关口,部分资金开始获利回吐,加速抛售。周一金价短暂反弹至4500美元上方,但未能维持,最终再次跌破4400美元。相对强弱指数(RSI)跌破30,显示市场处于超卖状态,投资者对后市存在分歧。

图表显示,4300美元区域是关键支撑位。一旦跌破,抛售压力可能加速,短期内金价或持续承压。华尔街多数分析师仍看好年内金价有望重回5000美元以上,但随着全球地缘政治和能源价格波动,预测正被重新评估。当前环境下,交易者需警惕黄金市场结构性风险,同时关注美元和原油走势对金价的持续影响。

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