某政治预测地址投入 5500 美元押注美伊七月前停火

Gate News 消息,3 月 16 日,Polymarket 预测市场数据显示,过去一日内,一个政治类预测胜率达 88% 的地址下注 5500 美元,押注「美伊会在七月前停火」,开仓均价 60.4¢,现价 58.5¢。

特朗普在 15 日表示,美国正与伊朗保持接触,但他怀疑德黑兰是否已准备好进行「严肃谈判」;同一天,美国能源部长 Chris Wright 在电视采访中称,这场战争「肯定会在未来几周内结束,甚至可能更快」。不过,伊朗外长阿拉格齐随即公开否认德黑兰曾寻求停火或谈判,并称伊朗「准备好打多久就打多久」。

阿曼和埃及最近几天都在尝试重启美伊之间的沟通渠道。两名消息人士称,阿曼在战前曾负责斡旋,如今又多次试图打开联络线,但白宫已明确表示暂时没有兴趣;三名安全与外交消息人士则称,埃及也在尝试恢复沟通。伊方消息人士还称,德黑兰拒绝任何停火,除非美以先停止空袭,并满足「永久停止攻击」和赔偿等条件。

注:根据该交易者过往交易画像判断,其并非押注事件是否实际发生,存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。账户地址:0xb03b826a4fc9893b35d3ddf4f11be824525b6ca1。

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