Polymarket 新账户投入 2 万美元,押注美军 3 月底前不进入伊朗

Gate News 消息,3 月 13 日,Polymarket 预测市场上,一个新创建的账户投入 2 万美元,买入「美军在 3 月 31 日前进入伊朗」的「否」选项。该笔押注的开仓均价为 75¢,目前该选项的概率为 75%,账户地址为 0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204。

特朗普政府当前采取双重策略:一方面多次强调战争即将结束,将联合空袭描述为「重大军事进展」和「战略胜利」,试图为局势降温,避免中东陷入地面战争,以防国际油价失控并加剧美国国内通胀压力;另一方面,特朗普也发出升级威胁,表示如果伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡,将以「20 倍强度」回击。

尽管特朗普政府试图将联合空袭定性为「战术成功」并逐步抽身,但对派遣美军进入伊朗领土的选项未表现出坚决抗拒,而是考虑有限的特种部队行动。然而,华盛顿正面临来自以色列的巨大压力。在前期空袭对伊朗政权高层造成重创后,以色列国内强硬派认为当前是彻底拔除伊朗核威胁的唯一历史窗口。由于深埋地下的高等级核设施难以单凭现有钻地弹药确保完全瘫痪,以色列正游说甚至施压白宫,希望美军特种部队能执行短促的地面渗透或物理破坏任务,以彻底清除剩余的浓缩铀库存和核材料。

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