Polymarket 高盈利账户投入 1.3 万美元预测美伊冲突将于 3 月内结束

Gate News 消息,3 月 10 日,据 PolyBeats 监测,在预测市场 Polymarket 上,一个在 2 月 28 日伊朗冲突相关盘口中盈利超过 45 万美元的账户投入合计 1.3 万美元买入美伊以三方冲突结束相关选项。其中,该账户投入 6700 美元买入「伊朗与以色列/美国冲突将在 3 月 15 日前结束」选项,开仓均价为 6.2¢,目前该选项的概率为 9%。该账户地址为 0xde7…5f4b。

在过去 24 小时内,美国总统特朗普在公开表态中频繁暗示针对伊朗的军事行动已几乎达成既定目标,并多次使用了诸如「战争已经完成」及取得胜利等具有收尾性质的措辞。

市场观点认为,美国政府试图宣布胜利并迅速推动局势降温,很大程度上是出于对国际油价急剧上涨的担忧。此前地缘冲突升级与霍尔木兹海峡封锁危机已导致原油价格大幅攀升,高油价所带来的国内通胀压力直接违背了特朗普政府核心的经济诉求,促使其在现阶段表现出明确的止战与停火意愿。

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