油价创逾两年新高,分析师警告海湾石油生产停止风险或冲击全球经济

Gate News 消息,3 月 7 日,在卡塔尔能源大臣警告海湾地区石油生产可能数日内全部停止后,油价已升至两年多来最高水平。Rystad Energy 分析师 Jorge Leon 表示,当前局势对全球经济构成真实风险。如果这种情况持续超过两周,对能源系统和全球宏观经济前景产生非常重大影响的可能性就会大得多。如果海湾国家无法出口石油,他们将需要储存石油,当储存空间用尽时就得停止生产。Leon 认为,预期油价将超过每桶 100 美元是"现实的",但重要的是油价在这一水平上持续多久。届时,世界各国政府很可能会释放其石油储备,就像俄乌冲突后那样。Quilter 投资策略师 Lindsay James 表示,海湾地区所有石油和天然气生产长期停止是一种极端情况。市场走势表明,投资者预计霍尔木兹海峡交通中断的问题将迅速解决,但冲突持续时间比最初预期更长的风险每天都在增加。对于家庭来说,压力将主要体现在能源价格上,而不是广泛的通胀冲击。更大的经济风险来自持续走高的能源成本,这可能会严重拖累经济增长。

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