前日本央行官员:日本央行4月加息概率仍约五成

Odaily星球日报讯 前日本央行负责货币政策的官员 Eiji Maeda 表示,即便伊朗冲突带来新的不确定性,日本央行在 3 月维持利率不变后,下月加息的概率仍约为 50%。他表示:“下一次加息很可能出现在 4 月或 6 月。考虑到当前的不确定性,这两种可能性大约各占一半。对日本央行而言,这是极其困难的局面。”他表示,由于通胀落后风险上升,4 月加息会更为稳妥。他的观点与市场普遍预期一致,隔夜掉期市场显示交易员认为 4 月加息的可能性约为 60%。Maeda 指出:“如果日本央行不在 4 月行动,日元可能进一步走弱。如果兑美元突破 160,将加大落后于市场走势的风险。”即便在当前水平,日元已“相当疲软”,稍微回调对日本企业和家庭更为舒适。(金十)

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