经济学家:今晚除了非农就业数据还要关注劳工局的年度人口调整

Odaily星球日报讯 劳工统计局将发布去年因政府停摆 43 天而推迟的新人口控制数据。法巴银行首席美国经济学家埃格尔霍夫表示,人口普查局的最新数据显示,劳工统计局自 2024 年底以来一直高估了人口增长。预计在调整后的 1 月数据中,16 岁及以上人口将被下调约 59 万,劳动力人口将被下调约 37 万,家庭调查的就业人数也会进行类似下调。使用平滑处理过去人口控制和移民数据的劳工统计局实验序列,并结合最新的人口普查数据,预计美国 2025 年劳动力仅增长 90 万,预计 2026 年总体劳动力增长远低于 50 万。人口控制调整只会影响 1 月的家庭调查数据。这意味着家庭就业、失业和劳动力等指标的环比数据将不具备直接可比性。美银证券经济学家米什拉表示,好消息是,关键比率(失业率和劳动力参与率)通常受影响很小。去年,人口控制调整使这两个比率都提高了 0.1 个百分点,而今年的风险是新的控制调整可能使这两个比率略有下降。(金十)

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